Why the post-Brexit ‘reset’ faces a reality check at EU-UK summit

Good morning. Professional-EU centrist Nicuşor Dan has won Romania’s election in a shocking upset over his ultranationalist Eurosceptic opponent. The mayor of Bucharest rode a surge in turnout to say greater than 54 per cent of the vote. Dan’s in-tray is giant and daunting, however his victory is a significant fillip for the nation’s EU and Nato allies that had been deeply afraid its pro-western alignment was in danger.

The centrist candidate additionally won the first round of Poland’s presidential election yesterday, however Rafał Trzaskowski’s lead over his rightwing rival was narrower than his supporters had hoped forward of a tense run-off.

In the meantime in Portugal, whereas the governing centre proper topped a parliamentary ballot, the far-right Chega tied with the nation’s social democrats in second place.

As we speak, our cross-channel staff preview the EU-UK summit the place negotiations have gone right down to the wire, and Laura experiences on the frantic European lobbying of Donald Trump forward of his name with Vladimir Putin this afternoon.

Reset reloaded

The EU and UK are holding their first summit since Brexit at the moment. However simply how far the vaunted “reset” of relations will go is below query, after negotiations yesterday continued in a single day, write Andy Bounds and Jim Pickard.

Context: Senior EU officers will meet Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to signal a defence and safety partnership in London. They will even attempt to agree on long-term fishing rights in UK waters, and description areas for future co-operation.

The principle occasion at Lancaster Home with the British prime minister, presidents of the European Council and the European Fee, António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen, will final simply two hours, adopted by a press convention. Then Starmer will deal with his visitors, who additionally embrace overseas coverage chief Kaja Kallas and Brexit commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, to lunch on a warship.

The symbolism is clear — the UK desires to parley its army would possibly for higher entry to EU markets, with out rejoining the one market or customs union.

For the EU, the principle goal is preserving its entry to British fishing waters, which expires June subsequent yr. It has mentioned it might probably’t agree on something with out securing that.

British negotiators have already signalled they might settle for guidelines set by Brussels to get a veterinary deal that might enable agrifood merchandise and animals to cross borders with much less paperwork.

However they’re cautious of placing a long-term fish deal, one of many explanation why the opposition has already framed the assembly as a “give up summit”. Additionally they need to restrict EU calls for to permit 18- to 30-year-olds to dwell and work in one another’s international locations.

However the strain to strike an settlement, which Starmer is already touting as a fait accompli, is excessive for the UK authorities. Brexit stays a giant dividing line of British politics: the negotiations had been front-page information in a lot of the UK press over the weekend.

Within the EU, the stakes are much lower, with governments below little strain to relent.

Chart du jour: Operating low

The EU might want to spend at the least €10bn greater than final yr to refill its winter gas stores, with reserves closely depleted. 

Loads of speaking

EU leaders have rushed to co-ordinate with the White Home forward of US President Donald Trump’s cellphone name with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the moment, writes Laura Dubois.

Context: Trump announced on Saturday that he would converse to Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the moment, additional intensifying efforts for a ceasefire. The Russian president skipped a meeting with Zelenskyy on Thursday final week. The talks had been attended by a low-level delegation as an alternative, and yielded no breakthrough.

EU international locations have been largely excluded from the peace efforts, and lengthy feared that Washington might conclude a take care of Moscow that might be towards Kyiv’s pursuits.

Therefore, European leaders have been making an attempt to affect Trump forward of at the moment’s essential name. Final night time Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer mentioned that he, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian premier Giorgia Meloni spoke with Trump to press their case.

Starmer mentioned the leaders “mentioned the necessity for an unconditional ceasefire and for President Putin to take peace talks severely.”

However the Europeans haven’t all the time offered a united entrance. Merz has had to cool a spat between Paris and Rome, after Meloni was excluded from a small group assembly of European leaders who first phoned Trump on Friday.

To reveal her sway with the US administration, Meloni then organized a gathering between European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen and US vice-president JD Vance in Rome yesterday.

“I understand how a lot you’re engaged in ending this battle, and I thanks for that,” von der Leyen mentioned to Vance initially of their assembly. “What’s actually necessary now could be that we push that issues are transferring ahead, and I feel the subsequent week can be essential on this regard.”

What to observe at the moment

1. EU-UK summit takes place in London.

2. EU humanitarian commissioner Hadja Lahbib hosts European Humanitarian Discussion board.

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