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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite tales on this weekly e-newsletter.
The author is president and chief funding strategist at Yardeni Analysis
When the US inventory market was hitting new file highs final 12 months, led by the Magnificent Seven group of expertise firms, the monetary media and plenty of traders extolled “American exceptionalism”. Now, not a lot.
As an alternative, the widespread fear is that the US is in decline because the world’s pre-eminent financial and navy energy. On this situation, the exceptionalism has been fuelled with excessively excessive federal authorities deficits which have resulted in a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120 per cent, a fourfold enhance since 1980. The online curiosity outlay on all this debt is monitoring at an annual charge of $1tn.
America relies upon greater than ever on overseas traders and central banks to finance the federal government’s deficit and to refinance its maturing debt. Nonetheless, within the first 100 days of his second time period within the White Home, President Donald Trump has abruptly turned the US in direction of insurance policies broadly considered as protectionist and isolationist. Consequently, overseas traders are reconsidering their dedication to its capital markets. As well as, they’re questioning whether or not the Treasury bond market and the dollar are shedding their standing as havens in a risky world.
So the decline of the greenback this 12 months has been considered as affirmation that Trump’s “new world dysfunction” will hurt America’s pre-eminence. It could even be a harbinger of a US debt disaster if foreigners lose their confidence within the nation.
That is all a really miserable narrative. It could even be an absurdly alarmist view that’s merely an overreaction to the current correction within the S&P 500. The sell-off was actually attributable to Trump’s tariff turmoil. However, now with the advantage of hindsight, everybody agrees that inventory valuations had been stretched in the beginning of this 12 months, particularly for the Magnificent Seven. In different phrases, the inventory market was cruising for a bruising. A number of the current ache skilled by the tech giants got here as traders questioned their excessive spending on synthetic intelligence infrastructure.
The angst mounted shortly when the US 10-year Treasury bond yield spiked from 4.00 to 4.50 per cent in a few days in early April after Trump launched his tariff regime on “liberation day”, as he dubbed it. The rise in bond yields spooked the Trump administration, main the president to postpone the tariff will increase.
On the similar time that inventory and bond costs had been falling, the broadly adopted Greenback Index (DXY) fell quickly by virtually 10 per cent. America was now not distinctive, in accordance with the doomsayers. Then once more, monetary markets may be risky with out confirming that the tip is close to for American exceptionalism. Latest occasions may be defined fairly merely and with out implying any dire penalties. Think about the next:
• Since early final 12 months, DXY has been extremely correlated with the value of the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF. US Treasury knowledge exhibits that overseas traders piled into US shares at a file tempo final 12 months. When open-source DeepSeek R1 was launched on January 20 this 12 months, traders misplaced their confidence in firms that had been spending loads on AI infrastructure, together with the Magazine-7. DXY fell as world traders offered them and allotted extra of their portfolios to Chinese language and European shares.
• DXY is an odd duck. It isn’t a trade-weighted greenback index, as broadly assumed. It’s based mostly on a basket of six main foreign currency echange — however their weights don’t change. It’s largely pushed by the euro, which has a 57.6 per cent weight.
• On a weekly foundation, the Federal Reserve board releases each day measures of a “broad” trade-weighted greenback index. DXY is often extremely correlated with the Fed’s greenback index relative to superior overseas economies. However on a year-to-date foundation, DXY is down 8.3 per cent, whereas the Fed’s broad index is down 4.8 per cent.
This all suggests that is no less than partially a dollar-euro story, as US shares are offered to purchase European ones.
It’s true that the US authorities has issued a file quantity of debt. That makes the US Treasury market the most important, most liquid, and (nonetheless) the most secure capital market on the planet. The greenback ought to stay the pre-eminent reserve foreign money. World traders would possibly quickly begin shopping for the Magnificent Seven once more now that Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft reported nice earnings for the primary quarter of 2025. If that’s the case, that ought to enhance DXY.
