Tehran, Iran – Iran has continued to voice help for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as opposition fighters keep it up with a blistering army offensive that goals to overthrow the federal government.
The international ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkiye held Astana-format talks, joined by United Nations representatives in Qatar on Saturday, as extra Syrian cities fell to the armed opposition teams.
Iran’s Overseas Minister Abbas Araghchi instructed reporters after the assembly in Doha that members agreed that the battle ought to finish and that political dialogue must be established between the Syrian authorities and “authentic opposition teams”.
He met together with his Syrian and Iraqi counterparts in Baghdad a day earlier, their assertion saying “steady coordination, cooperation and diplomatic engagement” is the one technique to keep away from additional escalation.
At a joint information convention after the assembly, Iran’s high diplomat stated his nation would stand with Syria in opposition to teams that “are certainly finishing up an American-Zionist conspiracy”.
Tehran has emphasised the concept that the rebels are foreign-supported in an obvious effort to forestall this offensive from being seen as a mere continuation of the civil warfare in Syria – which had solidified al-Assad’s place after 13 years of combating that destroyed much of the country.
Iran has additionally issued stern warnings that combating in Syria may unfold throughout the area, contemplating the excessive stage of pressure amid Israel’s brutal warfare on Gaza.
Lightning offensive
The opposition offensive began final week, simply after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a shaky ceasefire deal that has held to this point regardless of quite a few violations.
It was launched from Idlib by the group controlling the governorate, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), together with allied armed factions.
HTS’s chequered previous noticed it begin as al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra till its chief, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, embraced a extra nationalistic – quite than transnational – mission and rebranded as HTS in 2017, ostensibly a extra “average” group amid the factions competing for Syria.
Al-Julani has been on the forefront of a media marketing campaign emphasising HTS’s reformed methods, being filmed in public in Aleppo a number of instances, together with this week after an Iranian lawmaker proudly proclaimed in parliament that he had been killed in a Russian air strike.
He additionally launched movies of himself immediately addressing the individuals and leaders of Syria and the area and gave an interview to CNN on Friday and allowed it to report from Aleppo hours after town was taken.
Requested why individuals ought to imagine his reforms whereas HTS stays designated a “terrorist” organisation by the UN, the US and the EU – and there’s a $10m reward on his head – he stated: “These classifications are primarily political and mistaken.”
He promised he would construct an “institutions-based” Syria that may recognise the nation’s ethnic, cultural and sectarian diversities.
Iran and Turkiye, in mild of Syria
The Iranian international ministry has been hesitant to publicly rebuke Ankara for its backing of HTS, however Araghchi met together with his counterpart in Turkiye on Monday for a reportedly tense dialog previous to the talks on Saturday.
Ali Akbar Velayati, a longtime international coverage advisor to Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appeared to precise disbelief about Turkish help for the Syria offensive earlier this week.
“We didn’t assume that Turkiye would fall within the gap dug” by the US and Israel, he stated, suggesting that the shifting actuality in Syria is Israeli and Western-backed and would hurt the entire of the Muslim world.
Nonetheless, Iranian state tv late on Friday began referring to the rebels as “armed teams” in an obvious coverage shift from calling them “terrorists”.
Throughout an deal with on Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan backed the insurgent offensive and stated he had contacted al-Assad to carry talks and discover a resolution however didn’t obtain a optimistic response.
“Idlib, Hama, Homs, and naturally, the last word goal is Damascus,” Erdogan stated. “Our hope is that this march in Syria proceeds with none accidents or troubles.”
Erdogan has been looking for to get rid of an armed Kurdish presence or territory on Turkiye’s borders, because the nation tries to resolve a longrunning struggle in opposition to armed Kurdish separatists, the outlawed PKK (Kurdistan Employees’ Occasion).
It additionally needs to determine a “protected zone” in northern Syria to resettle hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees presently in Turkiye.
Close to Iran’s borders to the north, Turkiye is supporting the Zangezur Corridor, a proposed transport route linking Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan by way of Armenia’s Syunik Province, which might successfully join Turkiye, Azerbaijan and Central Asia.
If realised, the hall would sever a major Iranian path to Europe and bypass Armenian management.
Inside this context, a serious distinction between the persevering with offensive in Syria and the battle that began in 2011 is the extent of overt help supplied to anti-Assad forces by Turkiye, Tehran-based political analyst Ehsan Movahedian stated.
“Whereas a lot of the combating in the course of the time of the civil warfare was pushed by ideology, the character of the combating this time predominantly revolves round geopolitical targets,” Movahedian instructed Al Jazeera.
“Turkiye is pursuing an array of geopolitical targets, together with dealing a blow to the pursuits of Iran and the axis of resistance throughout the area, and reaping potential financial positive factors by increasing its presence in northern Syria.”
Movahedian stated Ankara could inadvertently push Arab nations’ stance on Syria nearer to Iran since HTS has displayed “radical” considering through the years that doesn’t take pleasure in broad backing within the Arab and Islamic world.
What’s subsequent?
Iran’s Araghchi has threatened that Tehran may immediately ship troopers into Syria, with out saying what circumstances would immediate Tehran to make that transfer.
The Iranian international ministry on Saturday denied experiences that Tehran’s embassy in Damascus has been evacuated.
However Tehran has not formally commented on media experiences that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel and another Iran-aligned fighters have evacuated Syria.
Particularly on this surroundings, sending in numerous troopers can be a major shift for Iran, which has to this point relied on proxy fighters and sending in senior commanders as “army advisers” quite than protecting Iranian boots on the bottom. A minimum of one Iranian common has been killed in Syria for the reason that flareup of combating final week.
Two generals and different senior IRGC personnel have been killed in Israeli air strikes for the reason that begin of the warfare on Gaza. One other high IRGC commander was killed in Lebanon in late September as he was in the identical bunker with assassinated Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.
“Syria is getting ready to collapse and we’re watching coolly,” Tehran lawmaker Ahmad Naderi wrote in a publish on X, echoing a sentiment that has been mirrored by state tv commentators as properly.
“If Damascus falls, we can even lose Lebanon and Iraq and should struggle the enemy on our borders. We’ve given a lot blood to protect Syria.”
The MP added he doesn’t perceive why Iran shouldn’t be extra wanting to intervene, however “no matter the reason being, it’s to not the good thing about the nation and one thing have to be finished earlier than it’s too late”.
Different members of the Iran-led axis of resistance – Hezbollah in Lebanon and armed factions in Iraq – have expressed their backing for al-Assad’s government.
However regardless of movies circulating on-line which have purportedly proven tens of hundreds of troopers and heavy arms able to deploy to Syria from Iraq – and a few even coming into Syria – there was no official deployment.
HTS in an announcement late Friday asserted that it might not invade Lebanon and Al-Julani launched a video asking Iraqi forces to not enter Syria, prompting a pro-Iran Kataeb Hezbollah chief to accuse him of utilizing “Zionist-stricken mercenaries”.
Iran and Russia would wish to ship in main army help in the event that they need to revitalise al-Assad, based on Aron Lund, a fellow at Century Worldwide and a Center East analyst on the Swedish Defence Analysis Company, who stated he’s “very sceptical” this could occur below present circumstances.
He added that sending Iranian troops to Syria would even be dangerous because of Israeli attacks on Iranian positions there, and Russia is probably not ready to again them with vital air energy as a result of warfare in Ukraine.
“Whether or not Assad retains his regime afloat or not, Syria is unlikely to have a well-functioning central authorities for some time.
“Components of Syria could degenerate into warring fiefdoms, with extremism, weapons, and refugees pouring out throughout the borders. There’s an actual threat of that, particularly alongside the Jordanian and Iraqi borders.”
