What to expect as America votes

At present’s agenda: Ukraine fights North Korean troops; Palantir shares surge; Germany’s financial disaster; the US election in seven charts; and Israel’s plan to reshape the Center East

Good morning. At present, People face a alternative between starkly contrasting visions set forth by Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a choice that would mark their nation, and the world, for many years. Right here’s what to anticipate as America votes.

What may resolve the election: The seven swing states are crucial. Each candidates have spent the final hours of their campaign in search of votes in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Financial Times poll tracker exhibits a statistical tie between Harris and Trump in all of them.

The gender split may additionally tip the scales. Polls present girls have been flocking to Harris on the again of her vows to guard reproductive freedom. Traders reined in bets on a Trump win yesterday after a ballot confirmed her unexpectedly main in Republican-leaning Iowa — partly from a late surge in help from feminine voters. However males have more and more turned to Trump, who has tapped male anxieties and grievances, in addition to conventional issues about immigration and the financial system.

What to look out for as outcomes are available: Expect a long evening. Polls will begin closing at 6pm Japanese time (11pm GMT), with the final polls closing at midnight ET in Alaska. Information companies will venture outcomes for every state, not only for the presidency but additionally for races within the Home of Representatives and Senate. Solely 270 of the 538 electoral school votes are wanted to clinch the presidency, so not all states should be known as for a winner to emerge.

However we could not have a transparent end result for a number of days. Every of the swing states counts votes at completely different speeds, with Arizona, as an illustration, estimating it may take 10-13 days to report full outcomes. Razor-thin margins may result in recounts, and authorized challenges could drag out the process.

• A rustic on edge: Regulation enforcement companies are braced for civil unrest after a marketing campaign season characterised by “unprecedented” ranges of violent rhetoric.

• Company America: The result can have big consequences for corporations spanning vitality, automobiles and prescribed drugs.

• Financial in-tray: Mohamed El-Erian particulars five crucial economic areas the incoming president must sort out.

We’ll have real-time updates and evaluation from our reporters on the bottom because the outcomes unfold — try our stay weblog on FT.com later in the present day. And be sure you’re signed up to obtain our US election publication, with editions each in the present day and tomorrow. Right here’s what else I’m protecting tabs on in the present day:

• EU: The bloc’s finance ministers meet in Brussels to debate support for Ukraine, laws on worth added tax and the local weather.

• Outcomes: Asos, Related British Meals, Hugo Boss, Ørsted, Saudi Aramco and Thomson Reuters report.

5 extra prime tales

1. Ukrainian officers mentioned yesterday that their forces had fired at North Korean troopers for the primary time since their deployment by Russia to its western Kursk area. The clashes mark the primary direct intervention by a overseas military since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started in 2022. We have more updates.

2. Shares in Palantir Applied sciences surged as a lot as 15 per cent in after-hours buying and selling yesterday as Peter Thiel’s knowledge analytics group reported report quarterly earnings and raised its income forecast, citing excessive demand for its synthetic intelligence software program. Read the full story.

3. Taiwan’s hovering vitality costs and rising outages are affecting TSMC, the world’s largest chipmaker. Following a sequence of value will increase, the corporate now expects to pay extra for energy in its house nation than anyplace else. Here’s how Taiwan’s shaky energy transition is straining its industry.

4. Demand for private safety for executives is rising as corporations are more and more focused by protesters, in response to the pinnacle of one of many world’s greatest personal safety teams. Allied Common chief Steve Jones mentioned companies linked to Israel, defence and vitality have been more likely to seek additional security.

5. Germany’s deputy chancellor has made a serious concession in talks on subsequent yr’s funds amid fears {that a} simmering row over the spending plan may convey down the nation’s fragile coalition authorities. Robert Habeck mentioned €7bn in authorities subsidies beforehand earmarked for a brand new Intel chip manufacturing facility may now be used to plug a gap within the funds, including now was “the worst possible time for the government to fail”.

The Massive Learn

Over the previous three years, Europe’s largest financial system has slowly however steadily sunk into disaster. Germany has seen no significant quarterly actual GDP progress since late 2021, and annual GDP is poised to shrink for the second yr in a row, with the automotive, chemical substances and engineering sectors all in a droop. What is going on proper now’s “unprecedented”, one analyst mentioned, and “of a completely different order of magnitude” from earlier crises.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Israel unbound: Buoyed by navy features, Benjamin Netanyahu now needs to dismantle Iran’s forces throughout the Center East and reshape the region.

• Chinese language property: After a greater than three-year slowdown, there are some signs of life within the nation’s actual property market. However interviews in six cities present there are lingering doubts about its longer-term prospects.

• Argentina: Billions of {dollars} of judgments and claims in worldwide courts are piling pressure on President Javier Milei’s cash-strapped authorities.

• Commerce coverage: Politicians attain simply for tariffs, however issues equivalent to local weather change and inequality have more effective but less popular solutions, writes economist Minouche Shafik.

Chart of the day

The frenzied contest between Trump and Harris, and Joe Biden earlier than her, has generated reams of information, shedding gentle on US public opinion and voter attitudes on every little thing from the financial system and overseas coverage to the candidates’ character. Here are seven charts that have defined the 2024 presidential election.

Take a break from the information

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