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Ports and delivery traces are braced for a “whipsaw” in demand as companies race to stockpile Black Friday and Christmas items through the 90-day ceasefire within the US-China commerce warfare.
Analysts warned that the sharp drop-off in container ship bookings from China to the US following President Donald Trump’s April “liberation day” tariff bulletins would now be adopted by an equally speedy surge in imports that may check port dealing with capability.
“First we’ll see a large drop in cargo arriving in US ports; then a large surge as items now ready on the quayside in China are shipped to the US. It’s a carbon copy of the whipsaw results we noticed within the pandemic,” mentioned Lars Jensen, chief government of Vespucci Maritime consultancy.
Logistics hub Freightos mentioned it anticipated “a interval of tight capability and a few gear shortages” as delivery traces and ports attempt to handle what is anticipated to be a sudden improve in volumes following the announcement of the 90-day truce by Washington and Beijing on Monday.
The ceasefire deal will slash the headline US tariff on Chinese language imports from 145 per cent to 30 per cent for at the very least 90 days, pending additional negotiations between the 2 sides.
Usually US retailers would import items for the important thing Black Friday gross sales interval and Christmas between July and mid-October, however they’re now anticipated to drag orders ahead to beat the potential expiry of the commerce truce on August 10.
Because of this, companies might face elevated container charges and a few delays within the subsequent few weeks “at each origins and US locations”, wrote Judah Levine, head of analysis at Freightos, in a be aware to purchasers on Monday.
The consequences of the tariff reduce introduced on Monday will take time to indicate up in knowledge, analysts mentioned, with ships taking about 4-6 weeks to succeed in the US, that means import freight volumes will proceed to fall for the following few weeks.
A wave of cancelled freight bookings in April resulted in virtually 400,000 fewer containers booked on Asia-to-North America routes through the 4 weeks from Could 5 than deliberate, based on delivery knowledge analysts Sea-Intelligence.
Earlier than Monday’s deal, the US Nationwide Retail Federation had forecast a 20 per cent year-on-year fall in container shipments to the US from China between June and September.
Though delivery charges are anticipated to extend, Freightos forecasts that they are going to most likely nonetheless stay under final yr’s excessive season charges of $8,000 per 40ft equal container to the US West Coast, and greater than $9,800/FEU to the East Coast. Earlier than the commerce wars broke out, massive shipowners had ordered report numbers of latest container vessels.
“With charges already greater than 30 per cent decrease than a yr in the past attributable to fleet development and elevated competitors between the brand new provider alliances, peak season charges might not climb as excessive as final yr’s peak season highs,” Freightos’s Levine added.
Nevertheless, the complete affect of the 90-day truce remained tough to foretell on condition that US tariff charges on Chinese language imports would nonetheless be greater than earlier than Trump’s bulletins in April, mentioned Sea Intelligence chief government Alan Murphy.
“Beneath regular circumstances, an expectation of tariffs would see importers frontloading cargo. On this case although, with the pause nonetheless seeing 30 per cent tariffs on Chinese language imports, greater than any earlier tariffs on China, the incentives are much less clear,” Murphy added.
Excessive ranges of US stockpiling after Trump was elected in November final yr might also ease pressures, some analysts added. US import volumes have been 11 per cent greater between November 2024 and April 2025 in contrast with a yr beforehand, based on Nationwide Retail Federation knowledge.
Revolution Magnificence plc, a UK-listed mass magnificence model, mentioned in a buying and selling replace on Tuesday that it had benefited from stockpiling “vital volumes” of merchandise of Chinese language origin within the US earlier than tariffs hit in April, and it was now beginning to reauthorise shipments the place wanted.
