Completely happy Sunday. In a 2023 column, I asked why Canada was not an financial big. The musing stirred up over 600 feedback.
The mountainous North American nation is the topic of this week’s publication. The near-term outlook for the Canadian economic system isn’t nice. The US’s proposed 25 per cent tariffs on items from Canada might decrease its GDP progress by round 4 proportion factors over two years (assuming they arrive into pressure and Canada retaliates), in keeping with a Financial institution of Canada estimate.
However on this version I take a decades-long view, arguing that with an formidable coverage agenda, the G7 nation can turn out to be a serious financial pressure.
First, a phrase on its potential.
Canada is the second-largest nation by land mass, with the world’s longest shoreline. It’s bookended by the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, making it ideally located for international commerce.
Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Analysis, additionally reckons Canada may very well be higher off in a hotter world. “International warming might improve agricultural yields, open up giant swaths of the nation to mineral exploration, and permit for brand new commerce routes by means of the Arctic,” he stated.
The nation is vitality impartial, with the world’s largest deposits of high-grade uranium and the third-largest confirmed oil reserves. It is usually the fifth-largest producer of pure gasoline.
Canada boasts an enormous provide of different commodities too, together with the biggest potash reserves (used to make fertiliser), over one-third of the world’s licensed forests and a fifth of the planet’s floor freshwater. Plus, it has an abundance of cobalt, graphite, lithium and different uncommon earth components, that are utilized in renewable applied sciences.
“Canada completely has potential to be a worldwide superpower,” added Papic. However the nation has lacked the visionary management and coverage framework to capitalise on its benefits.
US President Donald Trump’s tariff menace has, nevertheless, shifted the Overton window. There may be now a rising political consensus to unlock Canada’s financial potential and scale back its dependence on exports to its southern neighbour. That process will fall to both Prime Minister Mark Carney or opposition chief Pierre Poilievre following an election this yr.
Canada’s GDP has lengthy trailed its G7 friends, rating sixteenth globally in buying energy parity phrases. A rustic with its geography might clearly generate increased output. To take action, the Canadian economic system must turn out to be extra environment friendly, increase funding and entice extra high-skilled staff. Right here’s how.
The nation’s mountainous terrain impedes its dynamism. However Canada locations vital bureaucratic burdens on the motion of individuals and items too. This contains restrictions on the sale of sure items throughout provincial borders, and variations in licences and technical requirements that hinder scaling, competitors and environment friendly useful resource allocation throughout the nation.
For measure, Canadian provinces export extra to America than they do amongst themselves. A 2022 examine by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute discovered that Canada’s economic system might develop by 4.4 to 7.9 per cent in the long run — as much as $200bn a yr — if it eradicated inner commerce obstacles by way of mutual recognition insurance policies. Comparable reforms in Australia within the Nineties helped to spice up productiveness there.
Confronted with the specter of US tariffs, a provincewide consensus is rising. An Angus Reid survey discovered 95 per cent of Canadians now assist the elimination of inner commerce obstacles.
Simplifying its advanced tax system, expediting planning processes, easing pink tape for overseas direct funding and creating financial partnership mechanisms for indigenous populations, in tandem with inner commerce reforms, would assist companies throughout the economic provide chain faucet into the nation’s huge vitality and mineral assets.
Canada can play a major function in assembly the worldwide demand for pure gasoline, uranium (utilized in nuclear reactors) and rare-earth minerals, particularly as renewables and defence sectors are booming. The nation’s pure assets, in addition to its potential in increased value-add manufacturing and refinement actions, are additionally invaluable property as nations think about diversifying their provide chains from China, Russia — and even the US.
Creating pure useful resource clusters across the nation would assist the agglomeration of associated financial actions, together with in superior manufacturing, finance, and analysis and improvement. This implies boosting connectivity to assist buying and selling shops to Asia and Europe is essential. Proper now, round three-quarters of Canadian items exports go to America. (Any future, friendlier US administration would then be a bonus.)
“Canada should proceed to construct up its commerce and vitality infrastructure coast to coast, together with ports, roads, railways and pipelines”, says Varun Srivatsan, director of coverage on the Royal Financial institution of Canada. The nation ranks 103rd out of 113 for port turnaround occasions, in keeping with the World Bank.
Subsequent, folks. With a inhabitants of simply 40mn, Canada is without doubt one of the world’s least densely populated nations. However remarkably, it additionally has one of many developed world’s worst housing shortages. Common home costs have tripled previously 20 years, with excessive mortgage debt straining shopper spending.
That is each a requirement and provide downside. Immigration jumped underneath former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, serving to to broaden the nation’s sparse labour market. However it additionally strained public infrastructure, which didn’t develop on the similar tempo.
Tighter immigration controls will present short-term reprieve. However with an ageing inhabitants and a comparatively small labour pressure, Canada must proceed to draw expertise over the long run. (Synthetic intelligence and robotics — which each require funding — can solely go to this point.)
This shouldn’t be too troublesome. Canada outperforms the typical on the OECD Higher Life Index in schooling, well being and life satisfaction. Calgary, Vancouver and Toronto are ranked among the many greatest cities to dwell in. And Canada is the world’s most interesting vacation spot for the college educated, in keeping with the Economist, which estimates about 17mn graduates would transfer there if they may.
Constructing extra properties will guarantee it stays engaging and reasonably priced for each home and worldwide staff. (Canada doesn’t utilise immigrants’ expertise as effectively because it might both. A harmonised, nationwide recognition of overseas credentials would assist, notes the OECD.)
This isn’t an exhaustive checklist of insurance policies. However they should be among the many long-term priorities for any Canadian administration in search of to capitalise on the nation’s monumental, latent potential.
Does Canada have the cash? It has the G7’s lowest internet debt and deficit ranges as a proportion of GDP. So growth-enhancing funding may very well be financed partially by borrowing. However gross debt is excessive.
Canada additionally has huge swimming pools of capital and experience in its world-class pension funds — the “Maple Eight” (its largest pension pots) oversee $1.6tn in property. They may again profitable capital investments within the nation. Pure useful resource revenues may very well be channelled right into a sovereign wealth fund as in Norway with provincial buy-in. And as long as infrastructure and fewer pink tape allow it, FDI could be plentiful.
The Canadian economic system is at a crossroads. The belligerence of its major buying and selling companion is driving consensus round boosting the nationwide economic system. The world wants what Canada has in abundance. The nation has a novel likelihood to achieve its potential. If it desires to.
Rebuttals? Ideas? Message me at freelunch@ft.com or on X @tejparikh90.
Meals for thought
Right here’s one other potential clarification for Britain’s productiveness puzzle. Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, ran an interesting analysis that linked falling electrical energy provide to weak productiveness progress within the UK. May it’s that Britain has merely lacked the vitality to develop quicker?
