Earlier this week, President Donald Trump’s administration introduced the imposition of 25-percent tariffs on imports from Mexico solely to roll a few of them again once more. On March 6, the US president introduced that he was exempting all merchandise which can be a part of the US-Mexico-Canada commerce settlement (USMCA) for a month.
In the meantime, the Division of Protection continued its army buildup alongside the southern border, deploying an extra 3,000 troops.
Trump has claimed that these measures are wanted to stem the stream of fentanyl and undocumented folks attempting to cross into the US from Mexico. But, knowledge exhibits that fentanyl deaths have decreased considerably prior to now 12 months, and so has the variety of border crossings.
So what’s Trump’s actual motivation?
First, Trump is attempting to divert consideration from the chaos of his personal inner financial insurance policies. Although he campaigned on “fixing” the American financial system, inflation has elevated to three %, shopper confidence has remained shaky, petrol costs proceed to rise, and 1000’s of federal staff have been laid off.
Second, and extra importantly, Trump is attempting to impose a Monroe Doctrine redux, the place he can bully Mexico and, by extension, the remainder of Latin America, into compliance along with his new period of gunboat diplomacy with out concern of retaliation.
These are harmful occasions for Mexico and Latin America. The indicators of a strategic and army buildup are clear: the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to “the Gulf of America”, the labelling of eight Mexican cartels as terrorist organisations, the stepping up of CIA secret drone missions deep inside Mexican territory, the deployment of a Stryker Brigade fight crew to the border, and Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth’s declaration that “all choices are on the desk”.
The deployment of troops and the escalating rhetoric are creating the situations for a US army incursion into Mexico. If one does happen, it will match neatly into the lengthy historical past of US aggression in opposition to its southern neighbour and Latin America as an entire, which started 200 years in the past with the so-called Monroe Doctrine.
In 1823, then-President James Monroe put ahead a coverage, which beneath the guise of opposing European colonialism within the Western Hemisphere, sought to solidify US supremacy over the area.
The doctrine served as a springboard for US imperial enlargement over Mexico’s northern territories throughout the Mexican-American warfare (1846-1848), when the US carried out a large landgrab, taking on lands which can be a part of at present’s states of California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Colorado and Wyoming.
Then the US military used the upheaval of the Mexican Revolution (1910-1920) as an excuse to invade its southern neighbour two extra occasions.
The doctrine served to justify the US invasion of Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Haiti, and Cuba, in addition to numerous covert interventions all through Latin America.
At the moment, because the US faces challenges to its world hegemony from China and Russia within the Americas, a Monroe Doctrine redux is rising as an advert hoc justification for re-asserting US dominance over the area.
Mexico is among the many first to endure for a cause. The nation not solely occupies a strategic location – sharing a 3,000km (2,000 miles) border with the US – nevertheless it additionally has the second-biggest financial system in Latin America, with a GDP of $1.79 trillion. Though Mexico’s financial system is tightly linked to the US, it has diversified its commerce companions, with China – the US archenemy – being its second-largest commerce associate with a commerce quantity of $100bn.
In 2024, Chinese language overseas direct funding (FDI) reached $477m, up from $13.6m in 2008. In 2023, there have been reviews that Mexico had expressed curiosity in becoming a member of the China-dominated BRICS, which have been shortly dispelled by then-President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Nonetheless, this 12 months, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva invited Mexico, in addition to Uruguay and Colombia, to affix the upcoming BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro in July.
Mexico is presently led by left-leaning President Claudia Sheinbaum Prado, who’s a cool-headed however fierce chief, praised by friends. She enjoys an almost 80-percent approval score and has repeatedly said that she’s going to defend Mexico’s sovereignty.
In an effort to point out that she is keen to cooperate and to keep away from tariffs, her authorities has efficiently stepped up anti-drug operations, turning over 29 high-level cartel leaders to the US and asserting a file variety of arrests and seizures of fentanyl and different unlawful narcotics within the final month.
However Trump will not be actually enthusiastic about addressing the advanced downside of drug smuggling and migration that his nation has created with its dependancy to medication and low-cost labour. The US president actually needs to make use of the army buildup on the border to intimidate the Mexican president and to curb the affect of China in Mexico.
Whether or not Sheinbaum will fall in line stays to be seen. In the meantime, Trump will proceed to make use of the pretext of the warfare on medication and migration to determine his Monroe Doctrine redux over Mexico and Latin America. With this, he threatens to set the Western Hemisphere again over 200 years.
The views expressed on this article are the authors’ personal and don’t essentially mirror Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
