QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, we significantly admire your braveness, and it’s obvious that you’ve contacts that no one else has. You mentioned China takes 80% of Iran’s oil. I assume they get that via the Straits of Hormuz. If Iran had been to close down the Strait of Hormuz, wouldn’t that considerably influence their gross sales to China? You have got defined the Center East higher than anybody I’ve ever learn or watched on TV. Iran warned of “eternal penalties” after the U.S. bombed three main nuclear websites. I can see what you’re laying out: that that is the start slightly than the top. Do you assume China or Russia will enter this battle quickly?
Bret
ANSWER: The rationale Iran can assault the Straits of Hormuz is that the media has unreported the completion of the China-Iran railway hyperlink, which is a big milestone inside China’s Belt and Highway Initiative (BRI), particularly reviving the traditional Silk Highway via fashionable infrastructure. By the best way, the traditional metropolis of Antioch turned so rich as a result of it served as a key hyperlink to the Silk Highway, the place all items entered the Greek and Roman world. The time period assumed the “PURPLE” was related to a Roman emperor as a result of it was a dye from Asia that arrived by way of Antioch. It was decreed that solely the emperor may put on it.
Antioch was the port metropolis in Syria. It was strategic all through historical past. I’ve defined, maybe not in nice element, however China has been reestablishing the traditional Silk Highway. Iran can shut down the Straits of Hormuz, and it’ll NOT influence the export of oil to China. The China-Iran railway hyperlink, a part of the broader China-Central Asia-West Asia Financial Hall, primarily depends on the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran (KTI) Railway as its crucial connector. The settlement was signed between China, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, finalizing the KTI Railway settlement in 2013. The development started in December 2014. The primary direct freight practice from China to Iran arrived in Tehran on February 15, 2016.
Now, take a look at this from a geopolitical perspective. You have got the Houthis attacking ships within the Pink Sea. With this rail line, Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis maintain the stress on, stopping the visitors via the Suez Canal. They’ve the flexibility to influence the power circulation out of the Center East considerably.
The Shia Muslims don’t management “most” of the oil within the Center East, although they stay in areas with vital reserves. Management is primarily held by nationwide governments and state-owned corporations, not by sects straight. Nonetheless,
Saudi Arabia 267 billion barrels (17% od world confirmed reserves)
Iran 208 billion barrels (4th largest globally)
Iraq 145 billion barrels (fifth largest globally)
Kuwait 102 billion barrels reserves. Sunni-led monarchy
United Arab Emirates (UAE) 98 billion barrels reserves. Sunni-led federation.
Qatar Main fuel producer, additionally has oil. Sunni-led monarchy.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar (all Sunni-led monarchies) maintain a considerably bigger portion of the area’s confirmed oil reserves mixed than Iran and Iraq. Nonetheless, the Shia-Majority Areas are Essential. Iran and southern Iraq (Shia heartland) have large reserves and are essential producers. Iran is a founding member of OPEC. Whereas management is nationwide, not sectarian, this may be risky in occasions of warfare, as we noticed through the Seventies.
What I consider is important right here is the railway between China and Iran. The first rail hall connecting China to Iran turned totally operational in recent times. Trains now run usually from numerous Chinese language cities (like Yiwu, Xi’an) via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, terminating in Tehran. The ultimate part crossing Turkmenistan into Iran was finalized, making the complete route viable. This now facilitates considerably bigger volumes of commerce between Iran and China. China exports electronics, equipment, textiles, and industrial items. Iran exports petrochemicals, minerals, agricultural merchandise (like saffron, pistachios), and probably extra oil/fuel sooner or later (although sanctions complicate this).
This offers China with an important overland path to entry Center Jap markets and sources, decreasing dependence on weak sea lanes just like the Strait of Malacca. It additionally affords Iran a significant various commerce hall, mitigating the influence of Western sanctions and decreasing its isolation. Entry to the huge Chinese language market and Eurasian rail community is essential.
Understand that this has now launched a geopolitical alignment between Iran and China. Each China and Iran are performing as a counterbalance to US affect within the area. It integrates Iran extra firmly into China’s Eurasian connectivity imaginative and prescient. This railway is now a crucial nationwide safety problem for China.
The US sanctions on Iran stay a big hurdle. Worldwide banks and corporations are cautious of facilitating transactions, limiting the route’s full potential. China makes use of workarounds, however sanctions create friction and danger. They’ve solely additional divided the world economic system, giving the motivation for the institution of BRICS, which has undermined the worldwide economic system as a complete, dividing the world in half, all for the geopolitical instigation of the Neocons.
China has certainly accomplished and operationalized main rail hyperlinks to Iran by way of Central Asia. This represents a transformative achievement for the Belt and Highway Initiative, providing a sooner, land-based commerce artery between East Asia and the Center East. Whereas challenges reminiscent of sanctions and logistical hurdles persist, the hyperlink considerably boosts commerce, offers Iran with an financial lifeline, strengthens Sino-Iranian ties, and enhances Eurasian connectivity. It’s a concrete realization of the trendy Silk Highway imaginative and prescient. The Neocons have dominated American international coverage, and so they have NEVER given financial coverage a second thought.
I used to be the primary advertiser to assist Invoice Kristol launch The Weekly Customary. We took the again cowl each week, till I spotted he was NOT an financial conservative, he was a Neocon. They had been centered purely on the geopolitical facets of redesigning the Center East and defeating Russia and China. I don’t communicate from hypothesis. I had a front-row seat to the plans and targets that by no means took into consideration the worldwide economic system. That is what created BRICS – their conceitedness. I’ve even attended White Home dinners.
