QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I’m new to your weblog. My buddies right here have been on my case to take heed to you. Our authorities has fallen, and I’ve noticed one factor. Your forecasts are right as a result of no one right here will ever make a daring forecast, and so they all appear to evangelise the identical situation. You will have been correct on Germany towards the herd of analysts right here. One after the other, European nations are falling, and I can now see your 2032 and the e collapse of governments unfolding earlier than our eyes. What do you see in 2025 for Germany? You will have an answer for america. May you save Europe from itself?
Thanks
DT
ANSWER: As a result of I’m not a tutorial, what I converse comes from expertise and direct statement. The one financial theories which have survived are solely from those that have been merchants – not teachers. John Law traded on the Amsterdam trade and gave start to Provide and Demand. He articulated his well-known water vs diamond analogy, which said that water was very important to society. Nonetheless, water had little worth in comparison with a diamond that had no true utility worth but was price greater than water. Even David Ricardo was concerned in buying and selling and noticed the implications of worldwide capital flows. He expressed {that a} nation ought to deal with its comparative benefit – one thing Trump should perceive.
Sir Thomas Gresham additionally traded on the identical Amsterdam trade and noticed that debasement drove out the older coinage from the cash provide. Gresham’s Legislation grew to become that dangerous cash drove good out of circulation. We noticed this even in the course of the third century AD when individuals hoarded the previous silver cash and spent the debased. Even Albert Einstein, I used to be advised, acquired his thought of normal relativity from shifting up and down in an elevator. Albert’s particular idea of relativity gave the impression to be incompatible with the gravitational drive as described by Newton’s regulation of gravity.
Most analysts espouse the identical previous nonsense and venture the longer term primarily based on what the central financial institution will or won’t do. These analysts aren’t actual, for all they purport is similar Keynesian theories they had been taught at school. Sorry – they had been a tutorial idea impressed by Marx and now not work. Even Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, delivered his speech – the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle, through which he said that the “new economics” in the end failed. Any analyst who factors to the Fed has by no means learn the memos. Right here, we’ve the considering course of earlier than Keynes. The Fed raised charges in Could 1928 and continued into the 1929 excessive with no impact.
Here’s a chart of name cash charges from the NYSE. Simply look carefully. We see that 1929 was the largest inventory market rally however the lowest stage of rates of interest, all due to the capital inflows. The Panic of 1899 noticed charges rise to just about 200% due to the capital outflows. There isn’t any such idea of inventory market up rates of interest down that may be verified by any means.
You might be right. Europe is imploding one nation at a time. As I’ve stated many occasions, the creation of the euro was a compromise, and it may by no means rival the greenback, forcing institutional buyers to nonetheless decide and select between member states missing a nationwide debt market. Mr Scholz is a catastrophe. He misplaced a vote of confidence by 394 to 207, with 116 members of the Bundestag abstaining. Scholz’s last-ditch try to retain energy with guarantees of large spending fell flat on its face. This may ship Germany to the election in February, exactly when our laptop has been projecting a Panic Cycle upfront. Leaders from a number of main events have since agreed to maneuver up the parliamentary election to February 23, seven months forward of schedule.
I’d gladly fly to Brussels to deal with all members directly. However you will need to perceive the pc forecasts that my finest efforts won’t succeed. Every member retained its debt. If Germany listened, it could strain others to comply with or be left behind. However politicians have been brainwashed by the NEOCONs and NATO and are getting ready for a 3rd World Struggle which the pc forecasts that they’ll lose. This would be the demise of the West. I suppose traditionally, all of us have our minutes of fame.
In 800AD, Pope Leo III topped Charlemagne (768-814AD) Holy Roman Emperor. At this time, Charlemagne is referred to by some as the daddy of Europe. From that date, the EU shouldn’t be prone to exist after 2029. Europe is heading within the incorrect course, and NATO is pushing for World Struggle III, and there’s not a single authorities even keen to barter. That makes it very laborious. In all actuality, I believe they might solely take heed to me in 2029 and past.
