As just lately as January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the concept of a brief cease-fire in Ukraine.
However after a month by which President Trump turned American international coverage on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now seems eager a minimum of to entertain the 30-day cease-fire proposal made by Ukraine and the USA on Tuesday.
Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, advised reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin was “fastidiously learning” the result of Tuesday’s talks between the USA and Ukraine, and their name for a monthlong cease-fire.
He stated he anticipated the USA to tell Russia within the coming days of “the small print of the negotiations that came about and the understandings that have been reached.” He raised the opportunity of one other telephone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, signaling that the Kremlin noticed the cease-fire proposal as simply part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.
Late Wednesday, Mr. Putin sought to indicate he was answerable for occasions by donning navy fatigues and holding a televised assembly together with his high navy officers charged with pushing Ukraine out of Russia’s Kursk area, the place Russia has made progress in current weeks. He directed his troops to defeat Ukraine within the area “within the shortest potential time,” a transfer that, if profitable, would deny Ukraine a key level of leverage in any negotiations with Russia.
Mr. Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes over the past month as Mr. Trump realigned American international coverage in Russia’s favor, antagonized U.S. allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on the White Home.
However the emergence of a joint cease-fire proposal from the USA and Ukraine complicates issues for Mr. Putin. It deepens the stress between his needs for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for shut ties with Mr. Trump.
Whereas Mr. Trump says he needs to finish the conflict as quickly as potential, Mr. Putin has signaled he won’t cease preventing till he extracts main concessions from the West and from Kyiv, together with a pledge that Ukraine won’t be a part of NATO and that the alliance will scale back its presence in Central and Japanese Europe.
On Jan. 20, when he congratulated Mr. Trump on his inauguration, Mr. Putin made clear that the objective of any Ukraine talks should “not be a brief cease-fire, not some sort of respite.” Russia, he stated, sought “a long-term peace based mostly on respect for the official pursuits of all folks, all nations who dwell on this area.”
Analysts say Mr. Putin’s opposition to a brief cease-fire stemmed from the easy calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would solely quit its leverage by stopping the preventing with out profitable concessions.
However a Feb. 12 telephone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, and the White Home’s subsequent alignment with Russia on the United Nations and elsewhere, could have affected Mr. Putin’s calculus by making him extra keen to remain on Mr. Trump’s good aspect, analysts say.
That units up a fragile balancing act for the Kremlin.
Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, stated the Kremlin might be tempted to just accept a truce that may be “tactically unfavorable however strategically favorable” as a way to “present that it’s a peacemaker.”
Whereas Russians weren’t current at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has stored up its engagement with the Kremlin. John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, on Tuesday, Russia’s international intelligence company stated on Wednesday.
Steve Witkoff, the envoy for Mr. Trump who met with Mr. Putin for a number of hours final month, plans to return to Russia in the coming days, in response to two folks aware of the matter, who requested anonymity to debate inner plans. Mr. Trump on Tuesday stated that he thought he would converse with Mr. Putin this week, and he advised reporters on the White Home on Wednesday that his negotiators have been en route.
“Individuals are going to Russia proper now as we converse,” Mr. Trump stated throughout a gathering with Eire’s prime minister. “And hopefully we will get a cease-fire from Russia.”
In an indication of Moscow’s persevering with attraction offensive directed on the Trump camp, Russia’s international ministry launched a 90-minute interview on Wednesday that the international minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, gave to a few American video bloggers, together with the previous Fox Information character Andrew Napolitano.
Mr. Lavrov, talking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and stated Russia was prepared for the “regular relations” that the USA was providing.
“It actually just isn’t not possible that the Russians would settle for this,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst on the RAND Company, stated of the 30-day provide. “Not as a result of they need an unconditional, momentary cease-fire, however as a result of they now have a stake in relations with Washington.”
Mr. Putin’s calculus is also affected by Russia’s progress in current days in pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, the Russian border area the place Ukraine occupied a number of hundred sq. miles of territory in a shock incursion final August.
Mr. Zelensky had stated he deliberate to make use of that land as a bargaining chip in future talks, however the Kremlin signaled that it might refuse to barter as long as Ukraine held the territory.
With the Kursk area principally again in Russian fingers, Mr. Putin not dangers dropping face by agreeing to a cease-fire that would depart Ukraine answerable for an space of Russian territory, stated Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.
An additional incentive to agree, Mr. Markov stated, was to guarantee that Russia “doesn’t seem like a conflict maniac” within the eyes of non-Western nations which have averted imposing sanctions on Moscow. However, he stated, he anticipated Mr. Putin to insist on preconditions, corresponding to a halt on weapons provides to Ukraine during the cease-fire.
“Russia will very doubtless say, ‘Sure, however —,’” Mr. Markov stated in a telephone interview.
Russia’s in style pro-war bloggers on Wednesday didn’t show a lot enthusiasm for a cease-fire. A few of them expressed concern {that a} truce may finally result in a broader take care of the USA that, of their view, would betray the unique objectives of the conflict and finally result in a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
One blogger, who goes by the identify Alex Parker Returns, argued in a post on Wednesday {that a} peace deal would enable Ukraine “to get off simply and prepare for the following spherical.”
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.
