Israel-Iran conflict enters fourth day, roiling markets

Immediately’s agenda: G7 summit; JPMorgan’s Europe chief relocates; Adnoc bids $19bn for Santos; profile of Gavin Newsom; and a deathbed letter to Vivienne Westwood

Good morning. We begin the working week with the newest updates on the battle between Israel and Iran, which has entered its fourth day.

What’s the newest? Either side traded strikes over the weekend and into this morning, with Iranian rockets hitting a number of areas within the higher Tel Aviv area at this time. Iranian state media claimed an influence plant in Haifa was additionally struck. Earlier, the Israeli navy mentioned it had launched strikes in opposition to missile websites in central Iran. In a social media put up, it additionally mentioned it had hit “quite a few” weapons manufacturing websites in Tehran.

What’s the worldwide fallout? Oil and gold costs jumped this morning. Israel’s choice to target Iran’s energy sector — with strikes on no less than two gasoline processing crops and two gas depots — has poured extra danger into world vitality markets. Buyers are involved that Iran may retaliate by placing vitality targets in different Gulf international locations or impede the flow of oil and gas by means of the Strait of Hormuz, by means of which a 3rd of the world’s seaborne oil passes. 

What may come subsequent: Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that regime change may “definitely be the outcome” of Israel’s assaults, in response to a query about assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel’s prime minister declined to touch upon experiences that Donald Trump had vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Iran’s supreme chief, saying “we’ll do what we have to do”. The US president has additionally warned that the US “may become involved” within the battle.

We’ll carry you real-time updates on the battle and its influence at our live blog. Right here’s extra evaluation on the state of affairs:

• Nuclear weapons? Specialists say Iran has develop into a “threshold” state however query Israel’s declare that Tehran had begun an atomic bomb programme.

• What are Israel’s objectives? If Iran’s Islamic regime falls, the alternative won’t be a liberal pro-western authorities, writes former MI6 chief John Sawers.

• Why was oil output raised? With the battle, the Opec+ cartel’s current transfer to spice up crude manufacturing is coming underneath intense scrutiny.

Different world leaders, together with European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, are hoping the G7 summit in Canada, which started yesterday, will assist de-escalate the conflict. Aside from that, right here’s what else I’ll be watching at this time:

• Opec: The cartel publishes its month-to-month oil market report.

• EU: Ministers meet to debate the right way to wean the bloc off Russian nuclear imports.

5 extra high tales

1. Unique: JPMorgan’s European chief plans to relocate from London to New York, whereas conserving his function working the financial institution’s Europe, Center East and Africa enterprise. The transfer by Filippo Gori, who can also be the lender’s co-head of world banking, is the newest in a string of examples of senior bankers overseeing UK-based operations from the US.

2. Abu Dhabi’s nationwide oil firm is providing $19bn to take over Santos, main a consortium to bid for one among Australia’s largest vitality firms. Santos mentioned its board would advocate the provide, topic to phrases being agreed. Read the full story.

3. Rachel Reeves will set out a 10-year infrastructure plan for Britain this week, beginning with a brand new programme to restore crumbling bridges, flyovers and tunnels. Allies of the UK chancellor say she is going to decide to rising the infrastructure finances to at least £725bn over the next decade.

• MI6: Blaise Metreweli has been appointed the brand new chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service, turning into the first woman to guide the spy company.

4. Luca de Meo will step down as chief government of Renault to take the helm at Kering, the place he’ll lead efforts to show across the struggling French luxurious group, in response to individuals briefed on the plan. The carmaker mentioned he would stay in place on the firm till July 15. More details on the move.

5. Minnesota police have detained the suspect within the politically motivated killing of state consultant Melissa Hortman and her husband, and the capturing of state senator John Hoffman and his spouse. Vance Boelter was apprehended after a two-day manhunt across the US state.

Information in-depth

To Israeli navy planners, Iran’s Fordow facility is akin to Mount Doom: a tightly guarded nuclear enrichment plant, buried half a kilometre beneath a mountain, which is ringed by air defences and symbolically located close to the traditional spiritual metropolis of Qom. Satellite tv for pc evaluation reveals how the underground website has develop into central to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions — and a major challenge for Israel.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Gavin Newsom: Trump’s choice to ship troops to Los Angeles has allowed California’s governor to promote his brand of resistance to the remainder of the nation.

• Chinese language financial system: Mounting calls on Beijing to “rebalance” by encouraging extra client spending are misguided, writes Ruchir Sharma.

• Brazil’s beef barons: The New York itemizing of meals large JBS marked a dramatic comeback for brothers Wesley and Joesley Batista, who had been in jail eight years in the past.

Chart of the day 

US inexperienced bond gross sales have fallen since Trump gained a second time period as president, as firms search to keep away from undesirable consideration by backing away from or playing down their environmental activities.

Take a break from the information

Malcolm McLaren and Vivienne Westwood had been companions in life and artwork however the bitterness of their rupture by no means light. Now, a never-before-seen 16-page deathbed letter, written by the person who invented punk, has shed new light on their “tempestuous” relationship.