Warsaw, Poland – The streets of Warsaw have been awash with red-and-white flags final Sunday as two presidential hopefuls and their supporters marched through the capital for one final time earlier than Poland takes to polls on Sunday, June 1, within the second spherical of voting for the nation’s subsequent president.
Rafał Trzaskowski from the centre-right Civic Platform of the governing Civic Coalition and Karol Nawrocki, an unbiased candidate supported by the right-wing Legislation and Justice (PiS) get together, which ran Poland between 2015 and 2023, are the 2 remaining contenders within the election. Within the first round of polls on Could 18, Trzaskowski received 31.1 % of the votes whereas Nawrocki got here second with 29.5 %.
Up to now, polling teams say the vote is break up pretty evenly between the 2 for the ultimate spherical. A ballot by IBRiS for Polish information outlet Onet, has discovered that 47.7 % of respondents intend to vote for Trzaskowski, with 46 % indicating they may vote for Nawrocki. The remainder are not sure.
One of many two will succeed Andrzej Duda, the outgoing nationalist conservative president who was additionally backed by PiS and has been blamed for holding up justice reforms through the use of his veto in opposition to the federal government.
This can be a hotly contested race. Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have clashed over the European Union, nationwide safety and social values. On the similar time, each candidates take a equally hardline strategy to immigration, and have used anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, constructing on rising resentment amongst Poles who see themselves as competing for strained social companies with 1.55 million Ukrainian migrants and warfare refugees.
Whereas Trzaskowski has proposed that solely working Ukrainians ought to have entry to the nation’s baby profit, Nawrocki has gone additional, saying he would even be in opposition to Ukraine becoming a member of NATO and even the EU.
‘Each vote is required’
Talking at his “Patriots’ March”, which gathered about 140,000 supporters final weekend, Trzaskowski took intention at his opponent whereas calling for unity.
“It’s excessive time for honesty to win. It’s excessive time for integrity to win. It’s excessive time for justice to win. It’s excessive time for fact to win. That’s what these elections are about,” he declared to a cheering crowd.
“Full willpower is required. Each vote is required. In order that the longer term wins. So that every one of Poland wins.”
Trzaskowski has served as Warsaw’s mayor since 2018. His feedback about “honesty” are seen as a reference to a current information story about Nawrocki’s alleged buy of a flat in Gdansk belonging to an aged man in alternate for a promise to offer him with care. In line with the person’s household, the promise was not fulfilled, and he was positioned in a state nursing residence.
In response, Nawrocki has stated he’ll donate the flat to charity and identified that underneath Trzaskowski’s mayorship, households had been evicted from state lodging in Warsaw.
Trzaskowski is seen as a extra liberal candidate than his opponent and has, in contrast to Nawrocki, supported requires LGBTQ rights, in addition to the liberalisation of the nation’s strict abortion law prior to now. He has remained largely silent about these points in the course of the present marketing campaign, nevertheless. If elected, he could be extra seemingly to assist the governing coalition go varied payments, primarily reforms to the rule of regulation and the justice system, which have up to now been blocked by Duda.
“Rafał Trzaskowski could be a pro-European politician,” stated Bartosz Rydlinski, political scientist from Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski College in Warsaw. “Brussels, Paris and Berlin could be the primary capitals he would go to. He would attempt to keep shut relations with the US, however give attention to strengthening the European part, each within the European Union and in NATO.”
US endorsement for Nawrocki
Nawrocki’s weekend “March for Poland” by means of central Warsaw gathered near 50,000 supporters, and emphasised his nationalist conservative, pro-Catholic and free-market views. He argues that Poland must be prioritising its relationship with the US over the EU.
However his actual triumph got here this week when he obtained an official endorsement from Kristi Noem, President Donald Trump’s secretary of homeland safety.
Nawrocki laid out his plan for Poland’s future on Tuesday on the Conservative Political Motion Convention, an annual occasion hosted by the American Conservative Union (US) for US conservative activists and officers. The occasion is normally held within the US, however happened in Hungary in 2022. This 12 months, it was held within the Polish city of Jasionka, southeastern Poland, near the air and cargo hub which provides weapons and support to Ukraine.
“For us, for Poles, relations with the USA are based mostly on a deep basis of values. These values are freedom, democracy, and sovereignty,” he instructed the viewers, which included US Secretary of Homeland Safety Noem, Vice President JD Vance, the billionaire Tesla proprietor Elon Musk and Steve Bannon, the previous White Home political strategist in 2017 throughout Trump’s first time period as president.
“My opponent, Rafał Trzaskowski, is taking part in dishonestly,” stated Nawrocki, who claims Trzaskowski would comply with EU orders blindly, together with on stress-free immigration guidelines. “Not solely does he lie throughout public debates and get caught in these lies, however he additionally doesn’t wish to say what his actual concept for Poland after June 1st, 2025, is. And this concept is apparent. Pace up the migration pact, pace up the local weather pact and pursue a coverage that’s essential for Brussels, not for our safety.”
The occasion was a much-needed enhance for Nawrocki after an extended week of dangerous information.
First, on Could 22, Slawomir Mentzen, the far-right head of free-market get together Konfederacja, who got here third within the first spherical of the presidential election, claimed on his YouTube channel interview with Nawrocki that the PiS candidate had taken half in a struggle between soccer hooligans in 2014 – one thing Nawrocki has by no means denied.
Then, in a TV debate the next day, he was seen putting a small sachet on his gum, regarded as stuffed with tobacco, however which prompted hypothesis that he might need been taking medication. Nawrocki responded by offering a damaging drug take a look at outcome on Tuesday.
Lastly, a information story was revealed by Onet, citing nameless sources, claiming that as a younger man, Nawrocki had participated in supplying prostitutes to visitors of the Grand Resort within the seaside metropolis of Sopot, the place he labored as a safety guard in 2007. Nawrocki denied the claims and, in a put up on X, acknowledged that he would sue the outlet.
However the damaging information doesn’t appear to have affected his assist.
“In terms of the hooligan struggle, he was 28 on the time, and I don’t have an issue with that as a result of I believe that males ought to know the best way to struggle. In terms of different points – everybody could make a mistake, and it doesn’t should imply dangerous intentions,” stated Marcin Mamon, a right-wing freelance journalist who claimed the alleged scandals involving Nawrocki have been exaggerated.
“For me, voting for a conservative or right-wing candidate is a declaration of values, such because the Catholic religion. Voting for the opposite candidate means voting in opposition to the Church and for abortion, which I’m completely in opposition to.”
Parliamentary impasse
Having a like-minded president could be essential for the governing Civic Platform to reverse controversial judicial reforms launched by the previous PiS authorities, particularly relating to the independence of the judiciary.
Because of the adjustments, which have been deemed to contradict European regulation, in 2021, the European Union imposed penalties on Poland. Whereas Civic Platform got here to energy in 2023 with the promise of reversing the controversial legal guidelines, it has been unable to take action as President Duda holds a proper to veto and would block any makes an attempt at altering the regulation.
“Nawrocki’s victory would imply a complete warfare with the federal government,” stated Rydlinski. “He could be a way more conservative president than Andrzej Duda, and he would in all probability refer many payments to the Constitutional Tribunal, which continues to be underneath the management of judges elected by the Legislation and Justice authorities.”
In line with consultants, a victory for Nawrocki would additionally put Poland on a battle course with Europe.
“Karol Nawrocki would very strongly go for bilateral relations between Warsaw and Washington, breaking apart the EU’s unity,” Rydlinski stated. “He could be a mini-Trump in Central Europe, which might imply a significant battle with Germany, cooling relations with France, and positively a battle with Brussels.”
Nawrocki’s conservatism and fascination with Trump have sparked concern amongst some Polish voters. Those that voted for left-wing or centrist candidates within the first spherical are prone to unite now, not of their assist for Trzaskowski, however in opposition to what they see as Nawrocki’s Trump-like imaginative and prescient for Poland.
The left-wing and centrist candidates who misplaced within the first spherical have declared their assist for Trzaskowski, and their supporters are anticipated to comply with go well with.
“Placing a cross subsequent to Trzaskowski won’t come straightforward for me,” stated Zofia Szeremet, a 20-year-old pupil based mostly in Warsaw who voted for the left-wing chief of the Razem get together, Adrian Zandberg, within the first spherical. “However I can’t think about not voting in such an essential election. I don’t agree with Trzaskowski on many points, however on the finish of the day, he’s a assure for Poland’s pro-European course.
“Nawrocki is anti-EU, anti-Ukrainian, inexperienced and incompetent, and I don’t think about a president having ties with hooligan actions.”
An in depth name
Polls are inconclusive with regards to the election favorite. What the primary spherical of the vote has revealed, nevertheless, is that voters are bored with the continual primacy of the 2 largest events.
“If we add up the outcomes of Nawrocki and Trzaskowski, it’s barely above 60 %, the worst outcome since 2005. It’s clear that Poles are searching for another, and never solely on the proper, but additionally to the left,” stated Marcin Palade, political sociologist and professional on electoral geography in Poland. This compares with the practically 74 % received by the highest two candidates within the 2020 presidential election – Andrzej Duda and Rafal Trzaskowski.
“Rafał Trzaskowski completed the primary spherical [this year] under even what the polls predicted could be the minimal he may win, which is the worst doable situation,” Palade stated. “Nawrocki had the worst outcome a PiS candidate has had since 2005, under the scores of the get together that has stood behind him.”
Moreover, there could also be extra voters within the second spherical: Voter turnout for the primary spherical was 67.3 %. Palade added: “The second spherical shall be determined by younger individuals, but additionally by those that didn’t vote within the first spherical. It’s an open query whom they may assist.”
