The Thunder head into the 2025 NBA Finals because the third-biggest favorite in many years, however it could be unwise to underestimate the Pacers, who convincingly defeated a 64-win Cavaliers group and one of the best Knicks group of the century en path to the championship spherical.
Listed here are 5 elements that might affect which manner the pendulum swings in what guarantees to be an thrilling seven-game sequence.
Explosive offense versus lockdown protection
Traditionally, groups enable fewer factors within the playoffs when the sport slows down. Enter the 2024-25 Pacers, who, on their strategy to the Finals, turned the primary group in 25 years to attain 5.0 extra factors per 100 possessions than their opponents allowed in the course of the common season. Their effective FG% of 57.6 is the second-best mark for a Finals group by way of the convention finals, per Synergy monitoring. It is solely becoming that their explosive offense can be put to the take a look at by a traditionally elite Thunder protection, which held opponents to an astonishing 12.8 factors fewer per 100 possessions than they scored within the common season. If kinds make fights, this matchup was made in basketball heaven.
It is a dash, not a basketball recreation
Each attempt to run opponents out of the health club, however in contrasting methods. The Thunder accomplish that by forcing turnovers at an unprecedented fee with their battery of defensive aces. The Pacers turn offense into offense by pushing tempo after conceding a basket, greatest highlighted by Tyrese Haliburton’s league-best 9.2 pass-ahead passes per recreation. The consequence? OKC (23.8) and Indiana (18.5) lead in points off turnovers. However the magnificence is that they do not enable opponents to duplicate their method. OKC permits the fewest transition possessions (13.6 p.c) and the Pacers enable the fewest factors per transition possession (0.96), per Synergy. This sequence may very well be received within the first six seconds of the shot clock.
If the video games are shut, it is benefit Pacers
The Pacers overcame four 17-point deficits, together with three seven-point comebacks within the last minute, en path to the Finals — the primary group to realize a number of such wins in the identical postseason. On the flipside, the Thunder turned the primary group to file four wins by 30+ points in a playoff run. One group likes to blow out opponents, the opposite prefers to tire them out with its cardiovascular prowess. OKC may very well be in bother if the video games go right down to the wire. Indiana has the confirmed chops for surviving nail-biting contests, going 7-1 in clutch games determined by 5 or fewer factors within the playoffs to date.
Can Hali survive the Dorture Chamber?
Ja Morant, Jamal Murray and Anthony Edwards are seemingly nonetheless reeling from the consequences of being guarded by Luguentz Dort, who held the trio of stars to sub-30 p.c taking pictures from deep within the opening three rounds. It is now Haliburton’s flip to enter the Dorture Chamber, a difficult proposition for the Pacers guard, contemplating Dort often picks up his matchup 94 ft. Such an inevitability might hamper Indiana’s offense, which depends closely on Hali’s outlet and pass-ahead passes. Over the past two seasons, he averaged simply 12 factors in opposition to OKC, his fewest in opposition to any opponent, whereas trying photographs at a decrease fee when guarded by Dort than in opposition to another defender, per GeniusIQ.
The three-point margin
OKC and Indiana do not rely closely on the deep ball, rating seventh and eleventh, respectively, in 3PT attempts. But, the Pacers have shot at a league-best 40.1 p.c, whereas the Thunder have managed a paltry 33.6 p.c. Each guard the perimeter nicely, rating fourth and fifth in opponent 3P%. The important thing distinction, although, is the Thunder have packed the paint and made late closeouts — a method which will backfire in opposition to the Pacers. OKC has the third-highest opponent 3PT fee (44 p.c), and 32 p.c of these photographs have come from the corners. The Pacers have made an astonishing 46.9 percent of their corner threes. If Indiana catches hearth from deep, OKC can be pressured to regulate its defensive scheme on the fly.
