US President Donald Trump’s feedback on ethnically cleaning Palestinians from Gaza and forcing them into Egypt and Jordan might result in a radical reshaping of regional alliances, analysts inform Al Jazeera.
Trump repeated his intentions after assembly with King Abdullah II on Tuesday. He had beforehand indicated that he would use US help to each international locations as leverage to attempt to pressure them to go together with his concept.
Jordan’s King Abdullah II appeared to aim to placate Trump by flattering him and making a pledge to just accept 2,000 sick kids from Gaza into Jordan.
“I lastly see any person that may take us throughout the end line to convey stability, peace and prosperity to all of us within the area,” the Hashemite monarch advised Trump. Trump referred to as the road “music to my ears”.
Cairo and Amman have each fervently rejected Trump’s feedback on quite a few events and Egypt will host an emergency Arab Summit on February 27 to kind an Arab-led plan to counter Trump’s broadly sketched plan.
Billions in help
Each Egypt and Jordan have relied closely on US overseas help for many years.
Egypt has obtained greater than $87bn in US overseas help since 1946, although navy and financial help elevated considerably after Egypt signed a peace settlement with Israel in 1979.
The present $1.4bn in annual navy help that the US provides Egypt began in 1979 after the Camp David Accords have been signed between Egypt and Israel.
Right now, Egypt is likely one of the highest recipients of US overseas help within the Center East after Israel.
US overseas help additionally performs a big function in Jordan.
Israel and Jordan signed the Wadi Araba Treaty in 1994, establishing diplomatic, tourism and commerce relations between the 2 international locations that laid the groundwork for Jordan to obtain billions of {dollars} in US help as debt reduction.
The US now provides Jordan $1.45bn a 12 months in bilateral overseas help.
Jordan is reeling from cuts of $770m in financial help from USAID, which helped fund some Jordanian ministries, like Schooling and Public Works, and supported the nation’s water safety.
This funding is a serious a part of making Egypt and Jordan’s economies operate, nevertheless it additionally helps the US’s regional agenda.
Jordan “has lengthy served as a pro-West accomplice and continues to play a stabilising function, buffering Israel from Iran and its proxies, internet hosting refugees, combatting terrorism and extremism and serving as a robust and dependable ally to Western powers,” Dima Toukan, a non-resident scholar on the Center East Institute, advised Al Jazeera.
Egypt gives the US facilitations within the area, “together with the motion of US navy property throughout the area by preferential passage of the Suez Canal and overflights of Egypt’s territory”, in line with an Egyptian government-sponsored article in International Coverage.
All US navy help funds Egypt’s buy of weapons techniques from US defence contractors, in line with a congressional report, making navy help to Egypt an oblique type of subsidy for US defence contractors.
“As a fundamental lever of sentimental energy, help permits the US a big margin to train affect, handle its picture and domesticate widespread curiosity,” Toukan stated.
Huge gap within the finances
The prospect of Trump forcing by his plans to ethnically cleanse Palestinians from Gaza evokes stability issues in Egypt, in line with analysts.
For Jordan, these fears are “existential” the analysts stated. A lot of Jordan’s inhabitants is already of Palestinian origin and for Jordan to absorb one other million would deeply have an effect on demographics and questions of nationwide identification for a lot of within the nation.
To keep away from being compelled into it, Egypt and Jordan would possibly begin to look elsewhere for funding, like their allies within the Gulf and even US rivals for international affect – like Russia and China.
“If the US insists on withdrawing help, different teams and international locations will definitely need to fill this hole,” Toukan advised Al Jazeera.
China’s affect in Egypt has grown within the final decade and 2025 has been referred to as the “Yr of Egyptian-Chinese language Partnership” by the 2 states.
GCC states – who oppose Trump’s ethnic cleaning suggestion and who get pleasure from shut relations with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Egypt’s President Abdelfattah el-Sisi – might also resolve that filling within the funding gaps is of their pursuits.
However even when that have been the case, it’s unlikely the billion-dollar gap of their coffers will likely be absolutely lined, probably forcing them to “implement deeply unpopular austerity measures that predictably result in protests,” Geoffrey Hughes, creator of the guide, Kinship, Islam and the Politics of Marriage in Jordan: Affection and Mercy, advised Al Jazeera.
“It can additionally instantly hit the safety equipment and all of the more durable since a lot help is routed by the navy and police now.”
