Chinese citizens unconvinced by official growth claims

Good morning and completely happy Friday. In as we speak’s e-newsletter:

• Chinese language residents doubt official progress claims

• Has China already reached peak oil?

• Uproar in India over lengthy work hours

We begin in China, the place a slew of financial knowledge is due as we speak, together with GDP figures anticipated to point out the world’s second-largest financial system expanded at a brisk tempo of about 5 per cent in 2024.

However many Chinese language individuals who work in sectors from banking and native authorities to eating places and ride-hailing are unconvinced by official progress claims — and say present situations really feel extra like a recession.

“I don’t know the place this progress is meant to be coming from,” an proprietor of a printing and promoting firm in Beijing advised the FT.

“The authorities can say no matter they need,” he mentioned, suggesting the official knowledge was “blind to actuality”. “For me, 2024 has been the worst 12 months in my 20-plus years of operating this enterprise.”

Economists, and even senior officers, have lengthy questioned the accuracy of China’s GDP numbers, that are launched by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics and nearly all the time hit annual authorities targets with uncanny accuracy. Here’s what they say about the country’s growth figures.

• Chinese language property market: Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian miner, has pointed to “signs of stabilisation” in Chinese language property after weak demand from the nation’s development sector hit the value of iron ore final 12 months.

And right here’s what else we’re maintaining tabs on as we speak and over the weekend:

• Center East: Israel’s cupboard will meet as we speak to debate the approval of the Gaza ceasefire, whereas a far-right minister has threatened to quit if the federal government implements the deal.

• Russia-Iran ties: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian maintain talks in Moscow, the place they’re anticipated to signal a strategic partnership pact. (Reuters)

• Asean assembly: Overseas ministers collect in Langkawi, Malaysia on Saturday.

• TikTok: A US ban on the favored Chinese language-owned app is because of take impact on Sunday.

How nicely did you retain up with the information this week? Take our quiz.

5 extra high tales

1. Washington has blacklisted Zhipu, China’s most distinguished start-up creating giant language fashions for synthetic intelligence, alleging that it was advancing Chinese language army capabilities via the combination of AI analysis. The beginning-up mentioned it “strongly disagreed” with the US transfer, which it mentioned “lacked factual foundation”. Read the full story.

• Extra on AI: Donald Trump’s decide for secretary of the inside warned the US may lose the “AI arms race” to China until it boosts technology of vitality from fossil fuels and stabilises its electrical energy grid.

• TSMCS outcomes: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Firm has cut its profitability target regardless of roaring demand for AI chips.

2. Donald Trump’s nominee to be Treasury secretary mentioned the US ought to improve sanctions on Russian oil producers to power Moscow to barter with Ukraine. The feedback yesterday by Scott Bessent pushed up oil costs, as merchants thought-about the prospect of tighter international crude provide. Here’s what the Treasury nominee said about China during his confirmation hearing.

3. Trump may use the approval of cross-border offers to press international governments into aligning with US coverage priorities, dealmakers and buyers have warned. One European banker mentioned: “The folks on this administration haven’t any compunction about using every lever at their disposal to achieve their aims.”

• Nippon Metal: An anti-Japan tirade by the top of US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs is symptomatic of the abrasive setting brewing within the Trump period, writes Leo Lewis.

4. The UK international secretary and residential secretary have intervened on China’s planning utility for an unlimited new London embassy, signalling their help whereas outlining situations for the proposed website. Read more about Beijing’s planned mega-embassy in London.

5. Activist quick vendor Nathan Anderson, well-known for his campaigns towards Adani Group, Tremendous Micro and Nikola, is shutting down his agency Hindenburg Analysis seven years after he based it. Here’s why.

The Massive Learn

Overseas oil has underpinned China’s financial rise, because the nation constructed the world’s largest automotive business from scratch, new railways and air journey networks, and 1000’s of skyscrapers. However China’s thirst for crude could also be reaching a peak earlier than anticipated, a growth that has sent shockwaves through the oil market.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Do Indians work an excessive amount of?: An govt within the nation has gone viral for saying employees ought to be in the office on Sundays.

• US oligarchs: The emergence of a robust tech elite near Donald Trump has jarring echoes with Russia, writes John Thornhill.

• Life after battle: The joy sweeping Gaza on the anticipated halt to the devastating Israel-Hamas battle is combined with grief over months of loss of life and destruction.

Chart of the day

Native smartphone makers Vivo and Huawei leapfrogged Apple to turn out to be the highest two sellers within the Chinese language market final 12 months, dealing a blow to the iPhone maker because it struggles to introduce AI options on the mainland.

Take a break from the information . . . 

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