Greater than 1 billion parcels from China entered the US in 2023, with Shein and Temu doubtless accounting for a mixed 30 per cent of that quantity, in line with a report by the US congressional committee on China.
Round 1.36 billion Chinese language shipments entered the nation in 2024, US Customs and Border Safety knowledge confirmed.
Analysts say the transfer will probably be particularly disruptive for smaller sellers working by way of Chinese language e-commerce platforms, which goal US customers and shoppers instantly – a enterprise mannequin counting on ultra-fast, low-cost transport to undercut US retailers.
Beneath the brand new guidelines, such merchandise face not solely tariffs but additionally customs delays, compliance hurdles, and better logistics prices.
“It would positively gradual the (parcel screening) course of and exporters will in all probability see their packages being stopped on the border for investigation for a really very long time,” mentioned Guo. “This could be a much bigger headache which they beforehand didn’t actually must hassle with.”
Chinese language corporations already seeing “razor-thin” revenue margins would have little room to soak up further prices, in line with EIU’s Su, who provides that the brand new tariffs will “finally doubtless be handed on to US shoppers partially after a part of the associated fee is absorbed by US retailers”.
Over time, some Chinese language producers have been rerouting shipments by way of Southeast Asian nations to avoid US tariffs – leveraging free commerce agreements and built-in manufacturing chains throughout nations like Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Malaysia.
Nonetheless, that escape route will doubtless now not be a “cost-effective different” as nations within the area additionally face hefty US tariffs now hitting each ends of this provide chain.
“Rerouting Chinese language exports might fail in nations like Vietnam, the place exports have been beforehand rerouted partly, and are (now) additionally being hit laborious,” mentioned Josef Gregory Mahoney, professor of politics and worldwide relations at East China Regular College.
Chinese language corporations will doubtless pivot to new markets, within the months forward, Mahoney added.
