Bangkok, Thailand – A quick textual content message knowledgeable Chonlada Siangkong that she had misplaced her job at a photo voltaic cell manufacturing unit in Rayong, japanese Thailand.
The manufacturing unit operated by Commonplace Power Co, a subsidiary of Singaporean photo voltaic cell large GSTAR, shut its doorways final month in anticipation of United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs on photo voltaic panel exports from Southeast Asia.
From Monday, US Customs and Border Safety will start imposing tariffs starting from 375 % to greater than 3,500 % on imports from Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia.
The punishing duties, launched in response to alleged unfair commerce practices by Chinese language-owned factories within the area, have raised questions concerning the persevering with viability of Southeast Asia’s photo voltaic export commerce, the supply of about 80 % of photo voltaic merchandise bought within the US.
Like 1000’s of different employees in Thailand and throughout the area, Chonlada, a 33-year-old mom of 1, is all of the sudden going through a extra precarious future amid the commerce crackdown.
“We have been all shocked. The following day, they instructed us to not come to work and wouldn’t pay for compensation,” Chonlada instructed Al Jazeera.
US officers say Chinese language producers have used Southeast Asian international locations to skirt tariffs on China and “dump” low cost photo voltaic panels within the US market, harming their companies.
US commerce officers have named Jinko Photo voltaic, Trina Photo voltaic, Taihua New Power Hounen, Sunshine Electrical Power, Runergy and Boviet – all of which have main operations in Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia or Vietnam – because the worst offenders.
Thai photo voltaic exports to the US have been price greater than $3.7bn in 2023, simply behind Vietnam at $3.9bn, based on the newest US commerce information.
Commonplace Power Co’s $300m facility in Rayong had been in operation for lower than a 12 months, producing its first photo voltaic cell to nice fanfare in August.
“I’m baffled by what’s simply occurred,” Kanyawee, a manufacturing line supervisor at Commonplace Power who requested to be referred to by his first title solely, instructed Al Jazeera.
“New machines have simply landed and we barely used them, they’re very pricey too – a number of million baht for every machine. They’ve additionally ordered tonnes of uncooked supplies ready to be produced.”
Ben McCarron, managing director of the danger consultancy Asia Analysis & Engagement, stated Southeast Asian producers are going through a severe hit from the US flip in direction of protectionism.
“There are options that manufacturing may exit Southeast Asia completely if tariffs are launched both in a blanket means, or that particularly deal with Chinese language-owned manufacturing capability within the area,” McCarron instructed Al Jazeera.
“The implications are vital for these international locations; Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia accounted for about 80 % of the US’s photo voltaic imports in 2024,” McCarron stated, including that “some producers have already begun shutting down and transferring out of the area”.
Unfair benefit
US officers and companies have accused China of giving its photo voltaic corporations an unfair market benefit with subsidies.
China was the biggest funder of fresh power in Southeast Asia between 2013 and 2023, pouring $2.7bn into initiatives in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, based on Zero Carbon Analytics.
The American Alliance for Photo voltaic Manufacturing Commerce Committee, a coalition of seven trade gamers, was among the many loudest voices to foyer for a pointy rise in levies on Chinese language imports.
With out a reprieve from the notoriously unpredictable Trump, corporations affected by the tariffs have little recourse aside from the flexibility to file an attraction every year, or after 5 years, as soon as a “sundown evaluation” clause takes impact.
Some observers imagine the sector could by no means get better.
“It’s not simply the low-skilled labour that was affected by the commerce conflict; many employees within the photo voltaic cell provide chain are technicians, expert labourers,” Tara Buakamsri, an adviser to environmental organisation Greenpeace, instructed Al Jazeera.
“Even for those who make numerous financial savings, photo voltaic cell exporters would nonetheless want to chop down on these expert employees.”
Others take a extra bullish view, arguing that, as soon as the mud has settled, Chinese language photo voltaic corporations will drive the availability of merchandise wanted to satisfy regional emissions targets.
Whereas Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia and Vietnam welcomed Chinese language photo voltaic corporations partially because of the massive sums of up-front funding on provide, they’re all additionally in search of to satisfy extra of their power wants with cleaner sources.
Earlier than Trump entered workplace together with his tariff agenda, Thailand had introduced plans to grow to be carbon impartial by 2050 and produce net-zero greenhouse fuel emissions by 2065.
“A slowdown [or halt] in photo voltaic exports because of US tariffs could supercharge efforts in Southeast Asian markets by Chinese language photo voltaic corporations, which see the area as a crucial and well-aligned vacation spot for inexperienced applied sciences,” McCarron stated.
“Leftover provide from slowing exports might be absorbed by home markets in Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, notably if governments use the scenario as an economical alternative to quickly speed up coverage initiatives that stimulate home photo voltaic.”
For Southeast Asia’s photo voltaic corporations, survival can be prone to depend upon governments chopping pink tape and loosening the management of oil and fuel monopolies over the power combine.
On the similar time, the US’s exclusion of Southeast Asian photo voltaic imports might hamper the shift in direction of greener power on the planet’s prime financial system.
“Thailand’s photo voltaic cell manufacturing is closely export-driven and the US has traditionally been a significant export vacation spot,” Pavida Pananond, a professor of worldwide enterprise at Thammasat Enterprise Faculty in Bangkok, instructed Al Jazeera.
However photo voltaic tariffs will “additionally harm American customers and the inexperienced transition within the US as costs grow to be greater”.
