In these first days of what’s being hailed as a “new period” in Syria, the authorities now controlling Damascus are sending blended alerts. On one hand, they’re voicing their dedication to preserving Syria’s state establishments, and respecting the variety of its inhabitants. However, nonetheless, they’re signalling an intention to monopolise the extremely delicate strategy of political transition, and consequently state energy.
The trail they finally select to observe will decide whether or not the errors and miscalculations that devastated not solely al-Assad’s Syria but additionally Iraq and Lebanon will likely be repeated right here on this “new period”.
Earlier than Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces beneath the command of Normal Ahmed al-Sharaa, AKA Abu Mohammed al-Julani, entered Damascus on December 8, they pledged to maintain the formal construction of the nation’s establishments. Former Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali formally remained in workplace till December 10 and performed a minimum of a beauty position within the handover to Mohammed al-Bashir, the transitional prime minister who is about to serve on this position till March.
Shortly earlier than this, the HTS forces additionally introduced a normal amnesty for troopers of the Syrian military, signalling their intention to protect the common army, which is a central pillar of the state.
Preserving the construction and unity of the army establishment is essential to stopping state collapse throughout a political transition. We now have seen the disastrous penalties of failing to take action in Iraq, in 2003. The truth is, Iraq continues to be struggling the implications of this grave mistake at this time, greater than 20 years after the destruction of its army organ throughout the invasion.
The HTS authorities have additionally demonstrated no curiosity, a minimum of up to now, in initiating an intense de-Baatification course of akin to the one which hollowed out all of Iraq’s establishments and destabilised the nation for many years after the autumn of Saddam. For all intents and functions, it appears like the brand new authorities will not be planning to focus on the Baath Celebration, which has been in energy in Damascus since 1963, as an establishment. The management of the previous single occasion introduced a suspension of actions, however not their cessation. The party’s website continues to be operational – that includes a photograph of Bashar al-Assad no much less – and its central and native places of work haven’t been systematically attacked, as one might need anticipated within the aftermath of regime change.
In different constructive indicators, Interim Prime Minister al-Bashir declared that the incoming authorities intends to dissolve the oppressive safety businesses that, because the Sixties, have terrorised thousands and thousands of Syrians. He introduced plans to repeal the so-called “anti-terrorism legal guidelines,” which got here into impact in 2012 as a revamped model of particular legal guidelines that, for greater than 50 years, legitimised army tribunals focusing on tons of of hundreds of activists and dissidents.
These are undeniably constructive steps, a lot of which replicate a want to construct a brand new Syria with out dismantling the core parts that make attainable its survival as a state. The interactions of the incoming authorities with residents on the municipality stage, which have up to now marked by an emphasis on civil – not army – relations additionally sign a constructive method to governance.
Nonetheless, all these promising indicators are considerably overshadowed by strikes and statements by the incoming authorities that carry echoes of Syria’s authoritarian previous, which can lead the nation to repeat the errors its neighbours made throughout their very own political transitions.
HTS chief al-Sharaa, for instance, introduced the appointment of al-Bashir, who beforehand led the so-called Salvation Authorities of Idlib, as prime minister with out consulting any forces exterior of the group. This appointment, made unilaterally and primarily based solely on in-group ties, has made folks fear the dysfunctional energy mechanisms of al-Assad’s Syria could proceed into the brand new period.
One other placing growth was the choice to show the HTS flag – that includes the Islamic career of religion (shahada) in black on a white background – throughout the first assembly of the brand new authorities, held within the prime minister’s workplace. To many, this was harking back to how, till a number of days in the past, the Syrian tricolour was all the time accompanied by the banner of al-Assad’s Baath Celebration.
Much less shocking, however no much less vital, has been the implicit contradiction between the brand new authorities’ media declarations in regards to the inclusivity of their state-building undertaking and their silence concerning the inclusion of Kurdish-Syrian communities. Al-Sharaa and his inside circle seem unwilling to embrace Kurds and invite them to participate on this nationwide undertaking whereas delicate negotiations over energy balances alongside the Euphrates are beneath means between Turkiye, which helps HTS, and america, which maintains a army presence in Kurdish-controlled areas. Moreover, opening as much as the Kurds might threat antagonising Turkiye, whom the brand new leaders in Damascus seemingly see as essential to sustaining the assist of if their fledging governance undertaking is to succeed.
However, the brand new rulers of Damascus might have extra forcefully condemned the de facto annexations carried out by Israel to the southwest of Damascus, in addition to the unprecedented sequence of Israeli air strikes on the installations of the Syrian army – the identical military that al-Sharaa claims to need to shield from post-Assad collapse. The close to silence from al-Sharaa and his new prime minister on relations with Israel has raised eyebrows amongst many Syrians. Whereas undoubtedly relieved by the “liberation” after half a century, Syrians stay deeply hooked up to the rules of nationwide defence, in addition to the preservation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The army leaders who’ve stuffed the vacuum left by the Assad regime haven’t but given a transparent indication concerning the trajectory of the transition they’re overseeing. Nor have they acknowledged the only real roadmap at the moment on the desk of worldwide negotiations: UN Decision 2254 of 2015. This doc outlines the trail in direction of an orderly transition, with two overarching priorities: safeguarding the state, distinct from the regime, and averting additional bloodshed. The urgency of those priorities is underscored by troubling, although maybe inevitable, episodes of score-settling which have emerged within the streets and squares of assorted Syrian cities after many years of systemic violence inflicted by the regime.
These rules are explicitly enshrined in UN Decision 2254. Though the decision was crafted in a political and army context vastly completely different from at this time’s realities, its roadmap for an orderly, Syrian-led transition stays a useful information. The decision requires the institution of a transitional authorities with full government powers that’s inclusive of Syria’s political forces, the drafting of a brand new structure, and legislative elections beneath UN supervision inside 18 months of the transition’s initiation. It additionally ensures voting rights for all Syrians, together with refugees and members of the diaspora. Notably, the textual content explicitly excludes “terrorist teams” and HTS was designated as such by america, the European Union and the UN lower than three years after the decision’s adoption. Al-Sharaa and his allies could thus not really feel certain to stick to a decision negotiated with out their participation by international events which have demonised them.
It’s essential for Western governments, reasonably than dashing to discover a formal workaround to recognise HTS as a professional accomplice regardless of their “terrorist” designation, to press Damascus’s new rulers to provoke a genuinely inclusive political transition according to the rules outlined within the 2015 decision.
To this finish, Syrian civil society – each public entities and people lengthy suppressed or clandestine, throughout the nation and among the many diaspora – should urgently mobilise to create areas for political and civil dialogue that transcend communal affiliations.
The danger is obvious: Syria beneath HTS might rework into a bigger model of Lebanon, with establishments that seem democratic and republican however are in actuality managed by a slender elite that wields energy vertically by sectarian and clientelist loyalties, bolstered by their respective international patrons. Avoiding this destiny requires prioritising equal entry to primary companies and elementary rights – akin to healthcare, training, employment, and housing – in a way that’s inclusive and equitable, reasonably than unique and sectarian.
Solely by fostering energetic citizenship and constructing horizontal connections throughout communal divides can Syrians guarantee a future free from the corrosive legacies of al-Assad’s authoritarianism.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
