Trading frenzy boosts brokerages and Wall Street banks

Good morning. On as we speak’s agenda:

• UK financial output unexpectedly falls

• SEC sues Cantor Fitzgerald

• Trump’s crypto bros

• 2024’s journey discoveries and disappointments

We finish this week with a take a look at how Donald Trump’s election win has sparked a buying and selling frenzy on Wall Road, as expectations for sweeping coverage modifications have added gas to a US inventory market rally.

Buying and selling volumes in US equities rose 38 per cent in November from the identical month in 2023, reaching ranges not seen because the meme inventory craze of early 2021, in keeping with exchanges operator Cboe International Markets.

The surge in buying and selling exercise has benefited Wall Road banks and brokerages, most well-liked by retail shoppers. JPMorgan Chase’s retail banking chief mentioned its buying and selling revenues for the ultimate three months of 2024 have been set to rise greater than 15 per cent from a yr earlier — triple the 5 per cent forecast by analysts earlier than Trump’s win. Citigroup anticipates its fourth-quarter buying and selling income will rise as a lot as 19 per cent from a yr in the past.

In the meantime, retail dealer Robinhood mentioned fairness buying and selling volumes elevated 16 per cent between October and November and Interactive Brokers mentioned its day by day common income trades rose 17 per cent.

There was an “unimaginable degree” of investor curiosity in markets in current months, Rick Wurster, who is because of take the reins as chief govt of brokerage Charles Schwab, advised the Monetary Occasions. Here’s more on what the trading surge means for banks and brokers.

• M&A: Dealmakers are gearing up for a strong comeback beneath Trump, however his antitrust appointments recommend a more complex reality.

Right here’s what we’ll be watching as we speak and over the weekend:

• Nasdaq 100: The know-how index broadcasts its annual reshuffle of constituent shares.

• Syria: US secretary of state Antony Blinken meets his Turkish counterpart in an effort to safe a peaceable transition following the autumn of the Assad regime.

• 2026 World Cup: Fifa attracts the 12 European qualifying teams for the soccer event which shall be held in North America.

• South Korea: Parliament will maintain a second vote on a movement to question President Yoon Suk Yeol tomorrow over his shortlived declaration of martial regulation final week.

• Georgia: The south Caucasus nation holds elections for a brand new president tomorrow, amid a political crisis over EU accession and a Russia-leaning authorities.

How nicely did you retain up the information this week? Take our quiz.

5 extra prime tales

1. The UK economic system unexpectedly contracted in October, in a blow to the Labour authorities which stood on a manifesto pledge this summer season to “safe the best sustained progress within the G7”. The 0.1 per cent contraction follows an identical decline the earlier month and signifies a gradual begin to the fourth quarter for the UK economic system. Sterling lost ground against the dollar after the data was published.

2. The Tokyo Metropolitan Authorities will enable its workers to work a four-day week as authorities on the planet’s largest metropolis embrace the rising “four-on, three-off” motion in a radical experiment to reverse Japan’s low beginning price. Here’s more on the project, which will begin in April 2025.

3. China’s Communist occasion leaders spoke of the necessity for “vigorous” efforts to spice up consumption and home demand “in all instructions” on the finish of an annual financial convention. The feedback spotlight a need in Beijing for the nation’s economic system to become less dependent on exports in face of Donald Trump’s menace to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on Chinese language imports.

• Xi Jinping: President-elect Donald Trump has invited his Chinese language counterpart to his inauguration in January, in an early signal that he intends to renew the high-level engagement with President Xi that marked his first time period.

• Battle video games: An additional build-up of US nuclear capabilities would have little effect on whether or not China would possibly resort to utilizing nuclear weapons in a struggle over Taiwan, the primary large-scale unclassified struggle recreation on such a situation has discovered.

4. The US securities regulator has sued Cantor Fitzgerald, the brokerage led by Donald Trump’s commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick, for allegedly making deceptive statements to buyers within the lead-up to 2 public choices that raised $750mn. Here’s more on what the Securities and Exchange Commission said.

5. HSBC is reviewing its retail banking operations outdoors the UK and Hong Kong, a transfer that might see it considerably reduce operations in some international locations because it seeks additional price cuts. Mexico is without doubt one of the markets beneath evaluate, in keeping with individuals acquainted with the discussions. Read the full story.

Immediately’s large learn

Lots of the tycoons that survived the crypto crash of 2022 hitched their wagons to the Maga motion and poured cash into Donald Trump’s re-election marketing campaign. Philip Stafford and Nikou Asgari profile “the modern day Edisons and Wright Brothers and Carnegies and Henry Fords” because the president-elect described them this summer season.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• China’s ‘Trump playing cards’: US policymakers ought to assume extra in regards to the many ways Beijing could retaliate in opposition to potential tariff will increase, writes economist Stephen Roach.

• Poster youngster of DEI: The president-elect could also be dangerous information for variety, fairness and inclusion, however his White Home picks demonstrate its benefits, writes Stuart Kirk.

• The El Husseinys’ fall: A distinguished household made a fortune working for autocrats. Who was actually guilty when all the pieces ultimately fell apart?

Chart of the day

The European Central Financial institution yesterday reduce rates of interest by a quarter-point to three per cent and reduced its eurozone growth forecast for the next three years. “The factor which has modified is the draw back dangers, notably the draw back dangers to progress,” mentioned ECB president Christine Lagarde following the choice. Nevertheless, she warned that the brand new forecasts didn’t embody Donald Trump’s menace to impose tariffs of as much as 20 per cent on all US imports, implying eurozone progress could possibly be even weaker.

Take a break from the information

From vineyards within the Andes to rhinos in Zimbabwe, writers together with Pico Ayer and historian William Dalrymple share their travel discoveries — and disappointments — of 2024.