Trump, alternatively, would current way more threat vis-a-vis his China coverage. His tariff threats would wreak havoc on world commerce and provide chains if carried out. He might also go even additional, contemplating certainly one of his former Cupboard members referred to as for an entire decoupling from China. The buying and selling system would finally get well, however not earlier than struggling extended turbulence.
Regardless of this, a second Trump administration might counterintuitively make inroads with Southeast Asian governments.
His transactional method might discover extra help in Southeast Asia, the place governments favor to speak about deliverables equivalent to funding offers as a substitute of human rights and values. He might also discover frequent floor and private rapport with regional leaders equivalent to Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, given his affinity with strongmen who can “get issues performed” no matter typical restraints. Singapore leaders might need to alter tack, planning extra one-on-one discussions between heads of presidency to safe commitments from the US.
TAKEAWAYS FOR SINGAPORE
Neither situation is risk-free. Removed from being a cliche, Singapore ought to put together for a bumpy highway forward, no matter who wins.
Harris might present the multilateral management that Singapore needs on points equivalent to local weather change however fail to resuscitate US coverage on Southeast Asia. Trump would possibly make inroads with Southeast Asian leaders however trigger chaos together with his commerce and China insurance policies. Whereas constructing on the identical strategic understandings, the precise form of those insurance policies will depend upon the advisers the victorious candidate make use of.
