Because the 22 groups that aren’t presently targeted on capturing the 2024 World Sequence title gear up for the approaching offseason, many will certainly be keeping track of the variety of high-profile free agent starters set to hit the market this winter with Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty among the many consensus prime arms. It’s a category that’s not completely dissimilar from final winter’s group of prime arms, which was headlined by a quartet of Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery.
These prime free agent arms garnered a mixed assure of greater than $600M final winter, and the outcomes had been usually commensurate with that manufacturing. Whereas Montgomery struggled badly with the Diamondbacks, Nola put up a reasonably typical season by his requirements with the Phillies this yr (albeit with barely diminished peripherals) and each Snell and Yamamoto fought by means of damage woes to dominate as anticipated when wholesome. That stated, a starter who was checked out extra as a mid-rotation sort of arm final winter stunned the baseball world by rising with numbers akin to these on the very prime of the category.
That hurler was Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who was usually checked out as a tier under the aforementioned group alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito and Sonny Gray. Despite rumors that Imanaga’s market may prime $100M when all was stated and performed, the southpaw lingered in free company into the brand new yr earlier than ultimately signing with Chicago on a deal that fell far under expectations. Whereas the deal maxes out at 5 years and $80M, only a stone’s throw away from MLBTR’s prediction of $85M over 5 years, the deal got here with a fancy construction that solely assured Imanaga $53M, or roughly two thirds of that $80M complete determine.
It’s not exhausting to see why groups had been seemingly bearish on Imanaga. In spite of everything, the 30-year-old lefty was coming over from Japan’s Nippon Skilled Baseball at an age that’s roughly in step with a typical MLB free agent somewhat than the youthful age many NPB gamers equivalent to Yamamoto and teammate Seiya Suzuki make their solution to the majors at. Yamamoto was advertising his age-25 season final yr, whereas Suzuki marketed his age-27 season over the 2021-22 offseason. With lots of Imanaga’s prime years already behind him, he maintained all the danger of offering a hefty sum to a participant with no MLB expertise with out a lot of the perceived upside that will include signing a participant of their mid-20s.
Even other than Imanaga’s age, it’s additionally value noting that the lefty’s profile as a pitcher drew vital questions. The southpaw doesn’t throw particularly exhausting, having averaged simply 91.9mph on his heater this yr, and a few scouting reviews (together with one from Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions) raised questions on his capability to handle residence runs on the huge league degree as a result of his fly ball-oriented profile. Whereas Imanaga’s deep pitch combine and high-end stuff metrics provided purpose for optimism relating to his future within the huge leagues, the lefty nonetheless entered his first MLB season with loads of questions surrounding him.
Fortuitously for each Imanaga and the Cubs, he answered these questions in resounding style with a wonderful rookie marketing campaign. General, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA (37% higher than league common by ERA+) with a robust 25.1% strikeout price that was Sixteenth-best amongst certified starters this yr. He paired that strikeout stuff with glorious management, strolling simply 4% of opponents confronted this yr. That’s a determine topped by solely George Kirby, Miles Mikolas and Zach Eflin amongst all huge leaguers this yr and leaves him with a implausible 21% Ok-BB that leaves him sandwiched between ace righties Zack Wheeler and Dylan Cease on the NL leaderboard.
That being stated, not all the pieces about Imanaga’s 2024 efficiency was dominant. His 3.72 FIP is somewhat pedestrian (simply 6% higher than league common by FIP-) and extra superior metrics equivalent to xERA and SIERA, whereas extra bullish than FIP on his efficiency, nonetheless see him as extra of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than the two.91 determine he truly posted this yr. The primary wrongdoer for that discrepancy between outcomes and metrics is the exact same weak point that drew some skepticism final winter: his proclivity for giving up homers. Imanaga surrendered 27 residence runs this yr, tied with Twins righty Bailey Ober for ninth-most amongst all certified starters in 2024.
Whereas that’s definitely not a very untenable determine, it might definitely be truthful to marvel if Imanaga is due for some regression heading into subsequent season. Of the eight pitchers who surrendered extra homers than Imanaga this yr, none got here near his sterling ERA with solely Nola (3.57) and Jose Berrios (3.60) posting an determine that was even inside a full run of Imanaga’s 2.91 mark. Between his hefty residence run price and an above-average 80.2% strand price this yr, it might hardly be a shock if the emergent ace put up numbers nearer to the mid-rotation ceiling he was thought to have this time final yr come 2025.
In fact, even a step again that aligns Imanaga’s efficiency extra carefully along with his superior metrics would go away the Cubs with a wonderful No. 2 starter behind ace Justin Steele whom they need to don’t have any considerations about beginning in a hypothetical playoff sequence. Barring dramatic regression on the a part of Imanaga subsequent yr, it appears very possible that the Cubs will assure the lefty the total $80M worth of his contract somewhat than threat him opting out following the 2025 marketing campaign, which he would have the ability to do if the Cubs decline to ensure the total contract.
