A REFLECTION OF GLOBAL POLITICAL POLARISATION
ASEAN has taken steps to insulate itself from variations between its dialogue companions. Till 2022, companions might suggest issue-specific East Asia Summit statements. Nonetheless, negotiation of those statements (certainly one of which was proposed by Russia in 2022 on the seemingly innocuous matter of volunteerism) grew to become too contentious.
Whereas the East Asia Summit remains to be prone to concern no less than one collectively negotiated assertion in 2024, it’s a reflection of world political polarisation that ASEAN’s dialogue companions are now not capable of suggest their very own duelling statements to advance their most well-liked language on worldwide points.
As a result of Laos is a weaker ASEAN member, many will already be seeking to Malaysia’s chairmanship in 2025.
Prime Minister Anwar has courted worldwide controversy together with his help for Hamas and tilting in the direction of China’s positions on Taiwan and the South China Sea. However the ASEAN chair’s affect is at all times restricted, so Anwar’s personal views won’t change the trajectory of the organisation.
Anwar has already invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the 2025 ASEAN summits, which might present a chance for Moscow to safe a diplomatic win corresponding to reaching complete strategic companion standing, which Australia, China, the US and Japan already take pleasure in (South Korea could have complete strategic companion standing confirmed later this 12 months).
So, the ASEAN present will come to Laos after which roll on once more. Concrete progress on urgent points will probably be sorely missing. However as the worldwide surroundings turns into extra contested and the scope for worldwide consensus narrows, ASEAN’s convening energy is probably extra vital than ever.
Susannah Patton is Director of the Southeast Asia Program on the Lowy Institute. This commentary first appeared on the Lowy Institute’s weblog, The Interpreter.
