What’s next for the ‘big, beautiful bill’?

Welcome to White Home Watch. I’m your host for right this moment. We’ll be off on Thursday however again in your inbox subsequent week. On right this moment’s agenda:

• A ‘huge, stunning’ replace

• The most recent menace to Harvard

• One other looming deadline

Donald Trump’s prime legislative precedence, passing his flagship tax and spending invoice, is inching nearer to actuality — however some important obstacles stay.

Right here’s the state of play at 9am in Washington: After a full day of debate, Republican senators have but to get their model of the invoice over the road. They’ll proceed right this moment to attempt to win over the remaining holdouts to cross the invoice by a easy majority. Vice-president JD Vance has additionally arrived on the Capitol in case he must be the tiebreaking vote.

As soon as they try this, it is going to then head again to the Home of Representatives to be accepted by the decrease chamber, where things could get tricky.

The Home final month handed its personal model of the laws, however a number of lawmakers have sounded alarm bells in regards to the Senate model of the invoice — elevating the chance that it may stall once more. Home Speaker Mike Johnson is contending with a razor-thin majority and might afford to lose solely a handful of votes.

If the Home disagrees with the Senate invoice, it may amend it and ship it again to the higher chamber — the place it might want yet one more vote. Or the 2 chambers may ship members to a convention committee to strike a compromise.

When each chambers agree on the textual content, it might go to Trump to be signed into regulation. In the end, it might fund an extension of the tax cuts launched in Trump’s first time period by slashing spending on healthcare and social welfare programmes.

Elon Musk, Trump’s former ally who fell out with the president final month partially over the laws, isn’t serving to with the invoice’s progress.

In posts on X yesterday, Musk slammed the invoice and threatened to launch a brand new political celebration to problem incumbents if the laws passes. Trump hit again with a threat to cancel government subsidies for Musk’s business empire.

Not nice information for Trump’s objective of getting this accomplished earlier than July 4 — however in actuality not a lot will occur if Congress slips previous the self-imposed deadline.

The most recent headlines

What we’re listening to

One other vital date is looming earlier than the Trump administration: July 9, when the steep tariffs that the president initially proposed in April have been slated to take impact once more, within the absence of country-specific commerce offers.

However Trump’s prime commerce officers at the moment are scaling back their ambitions for complete reciprocal offers with overseas international locations, searching for narrower agreements to avert the looming reimposition of US tariffs [free to read].

4 individuals aware of the talks mentioned US officers have been searching for phased offers with essentially the most engaged international locations as they race to search out agreements by July 9, when Trump has vowed to reimpose his harshest levies.

The brand new method marks a retreat from the White Home’s promise to strike 90 commerce offers in the course of the 90-day pause within the sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs Trump introduced on “liberation day”.

But it surely additionally provides some international locations an opportunity to strike modest agreements. The administration will search “agreements in precept” on a small variety of commerce disputes forward of the deadline, the individuals mentioned.

Nonetheless, talks stay advanced.

The administration can also be nonetheless contemplating imposing tariffs on crucial sectors, individuals aware of the matter mentioned. The specter of new tariffs alongside openness to offers, underscores the issue negotiators have confronted — particularly since Trump, has used commerce as a cudgel to safe concessions from different international locations.

Folks aware of the talks say the poor visibility of potential new sectoral tariffs the US might impose at a later date are hindering talks.

Additionally it is unclear how Trump will set any new tariff charges on international locations that don’t agree a brand new deal earlier than the July 9 deadline. The White Home declined to remark.

Viewpoints

• In financial phrases, Trump’s funds is classic bait and switch that would trigger many Republicans to lose their seats in Congress, writes Edward Luce.

• European leaders appeared broadly content material after the primary Nato summit of Trump’s second time period, however Gideon Rachman explains why the state of affairs in Ukraine may trigger any feel-good sentiments to soon disappear.

• Ruchir Sharma argues that the most important Trump shock on US markets is definitely that he has had so little impact.

• Trump mentioned final week’s ruling within the birthright citizenship case is a “monumental victory” for his administration — he might be right, says Brooke Masters in our Swamp Notes e-newsletter. [Available for Premium subscribers]