Senate races to pass Donald Trump’s flagship tax bill

Good morning and welcome to FirstFT Asia. In right this moment’s e-newsletter:

• When will Congress go Trump’s tax invoice?

• US customers ditch Temu and Shein

• China’s “choke factors”

• A 150-year ardour for Japonisme

Donald Trump’s “massive, lovely invoice” is inching nearer to passage forward of the US president’s self-imposed July 4 deadline. Right here’s what you want to know.

Present scenario: Senate Republicans charged forward with their efforts to go the invoice with a final vote expected to take place late on Monday or early on Tuesday in the US. Democrats have accused Republicans of attempting to hurry the invoice via “at midnight” and have sought to delay it, forcing a studying of the 940-page invoice on the Senate flooring and amendments to the textual content.

What’s at stake: The invoice would fund an extension of the sweeping tax cuts launched in Trump’s first time period by slashing spending on healthcare and social welfare programmes. It might additionally improve spending on the army and border safety. However Democrats and a few Republicans say the deliberate spending cuts will minimize entry to Medicaid providers for the poor.

Will the invoice get handed? Republicans can solely afford to lose three votes to safe a easy majority, with Democrats unified of their opposition. Two Republican senators have already mentioned they may vote in opposition to the laws, and a number of other others have expressed reservations in regards to the invoice’s measurement and scope.

Myles McCormick and Alex Rogers go deeper into the hurdles it will have to overcome and a potential timeline for passage. Plus, right here’s extra protection:

• Inexperienced energy winners and losers: Trump’s spending plan created a division of haves and have-nots in the way forward for US clear vitality. Martha Muir breaks down the details.

• Opinion from Lex: Non-public fairness’s “carried curiosity” loophole is the one which bought away. However this isn’t the primary time that’s occurred, writes John Foley.

And right here’s what else I’m preserving tabs on right this moment:

• Financial information: Japan releases its June Tankan survey, which is able to present key insights into enterprise sentiment and financial situations within the nation.

• Mayoral deadline: New York Metropolis will announce the ultimate winner of New York’s Democratic mayoral main, expected to be democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani.

• Outcomes: Tata Motors studies June gross sales.

5 extra high tales

1. The US greenback suffered its worst first half of the yr since 1973, prompting international traders to rethink their publicity to the world’s dominant foreign money. Trump’s commerce insurance policies and rising debt ranges sparked a decline of greater than 10 per cent within the first half of 2025. As one strategist places it, “The greenback has develop into the whipping boy of Trump 2.0’s erratic insurance policies”. Will it continue to decline?

2. Temu and Shein have seen their as soon as speedy US consumer progress plunge after Trump closed a tax loophole for the net retailers. Each firms had escaped import duties by sending Chinese language-made items on to customers’ houses as particular person packages. Regardless of low-cost costs and a social media promoting blitz, the retailers are now shifting their focus to Europe.

3. China’s export controls are spilling over into merchandise past uncommon earths and magnets, threatening broader provide chain disruptions and undermining US claims {that a} new commerce deal had resolved delays to shipments. Edward White has more details from Shanghai.

4. South Korea is lifting a 14-year ban on so-called “kimchi bonds” whereas retail traders rush to spend money on abroad shares and dollar-backed stablecoins. The coverage change is the federal government’s newest transfer to decontrol the nation’s international change market and enhance international foreign money inflows after its foreign exchange reserves fell in Could to their lowest stage in 5 years. Here’s how the main issuers of “kimchi bonds” are expected to respond.

5. Trump’s administration dominated that Harvard College is in “violent violation” of civil rights regulation and should “instantly” reform or lose all federal funding. It’s the latest escalation between the elite university and the US president, though feedback by Trump earlier this month recommended {that a} settlement could possibly be shut.

The Massive Learn

Regardless of China rise’s to the world’s second-biggest economic system and one in all two true army superpowers, the nation has not been able to overcome dozens of industrial “choke points”. From a western standpoint, the vulnerabilities are holding again Beijing’s quest for independence and depart it prone to US stress in an period of commerce wars and export controls.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

Chart of the day 

Hong Kong’s bull market is leaving China behind, in an indication {that a} lacklustre financial restoration and commerce tensions with the US have weighed on investor sentiment within the mainland. The mainland inventory market, which encompasses a better variety of firms in conventional sectors resembling heavy trade, property and vitality, has sputtered whereas the Hang Seng index grew 20 per cent in the first six months of the year.

Take a break from the information

A London division retailer was based 150 years in the past on a ardour for Japonisme. Now, it’s on full show. Liberty is called a spot for the “inventive shopper,” as Oscar Wilde as soon as put it, however extra particularly its textiles stand out. Read more from HTSI on the store’s new archival exhibition, which is able to make an look this summer time at Osaka’s World Expo 2025.