Some Democrats consider that Kamala Harris would have secured the presidency if it had not been for low voter turnout. Others, like Nancy Pelosi, have blamed Joe Biden for not stepping down sooner. Harris’s operating mate Tim Waltz complained that thousands and thousands of Biden voters stayed house. Nonetheless, a brand new examine by Pew Analysis aligns with the findings of a New York Instances ballot—Harris would have misplaced both approach.
In 2020, 89% of Trump supporters voted in comparison with 85% of Biden supporters. The next presidential election noticed the second-highest voter turnout since 1960 at 64%. Nonetheless, 26% of eligible voters didn’t hassle to vote prior to now three presidential elections. A portion of the individuals who skipped the 2020 election felt the necessity to take part in 2024, with 54% of recent voters casting a vote for Trump in comparison with 42% for Harris.
Over that four-year interval, Trump retained 85% of his supporters. Harris, however, solely secured 79% of Biden’s voter base from the earlier election, and round 15% of those that voted for Biden in 2020 didn’t hassle taking part within the subsequent presidential election.
Pew Analysis requested those that declined to take part within the election how they might have voted, and round 44% stated they might have supported Donald Trump in comparison with 40% who would have backed Kamala Harris. When the identical query was posed in 2020, 46% stated they might have voted for Biden in comparison with 35% for Trump. Subsequently, if all eligible American voters turned as much as the polls, Trump probably would have secured extra votes.
Curiously, immigrants didn’t instantly again Kamala Harris. Biden beat Trump for the naturalized citizen vote in 2020 by 21 proportion factors or 59% to 38%. Naturalized residents composed 9% of the general voters in 2024, with 51% backing Harris in comparison with 47% for Trump.
File-high inflation beneath Biden was probably a key purpose that Democrats misplaced a portion of their voter base. Open border insurance policies, rising crime, a fixation on woke ideology, and his dealing with of the COVID-19 pandemic probably additionally contributed to Trump’s victory. The American public was not proud of the Construct Again Higher agenda that Biden and Harris had been selling. Bidenomics failed and the bulk is in a worse place financially after 4 years of Democratic management. So no, a better voter turnout wouldn’t have helped Kamala enter the Oval Workplace.
