QUESTION: I perceive you depend on the pc. The forecasts are usually not your opinion, and that’s what makes you stand out amongst all of the speaking heads. What’s your private opinion? Do you assume that if Trump had given diplomacy an opportunity, it will have labored, or was this inevitable?
FS
ANSWER: Trying on the pc, I couldn’t see another end result. I do consider that Trump acted pondering that this is able to finish the warfare and the terrorism of Iran. His mistake is judging Iran by what a rational state would usually do. Iran is a theocracy, and its authorities is pushed by entrenched concepts that I don’t see altering.
The differing stances in direction of Israel between many Shia-majority actors (notably Iran and its allies) and a few Sunni-led states stem from a posh combine of spiritual, geopolitical, strategic, and ideological components, moderately than a elementary theological distinction between Shia and Sunni Islam concerning Palestine itself.
The 1979 Iranian Revolution established an Islamic Republic with a powerful anti-Western and anti-imperialist ideology. Opposition to Israel (“The Little Devil”) turned a core pillar of its revolutionary identification and overseas coverage, framing it as a colonial implant, an extension of Western (notably US) imperialism within the Center East, and an oppressor of Palestinians.
The Iranian Revolution exported ideology and identification. Championing the Palestinian trigger turned central to Iran’s self-proclaimed management of the Muslim world (“Resistance Axis“) in opposition to Western affect and its regional rivals. Iran sees Israel as its main regional adversary and a significant strategic risk, intently aligned with its arch-rival, the US, and Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia (traditionally).
Supporting anti-Israel teams corresponding to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and numerous Shia militias in Iraq and Syria turned the important thing geopolitical device for Iran. It initiatives energy and affect far past its borders. This established a community of proxies to discourage Israeli or US assaults on Iran. That is what I imply about non secular points, for it challenges the regional order dominated by the US and its Sunni allies. This “Axis of Resistance” is basically constructed on opposition to Israel and the US.
We should comprehend that for Iran and its Shia allies, unwavering assist for the Palestinian battle in opposition to Israel is a supply of home legitimacy and a method to declare management of the broader Muslim world, transcending sectarian divides. Portraying Sunni states that normalize relations as traitors to the trigger reinforces this narrative. It stays to be seen if the Shia will instigate civil unrest throughout the Sunni states like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
There are vital variations in Sunni approaches (pragmatism and shifting alliances) in comparison with these of the Shia (confrontation).
Some Sunni-led states (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan) normalized relations with Israel primarily based on pragmatic nationwide pursuits, not theological shifts. They’ve a shared notion of Iran as the first risk (particularly for Gulf states). They’re way more sensible when it comes to entry to know-how, commerce, funding, and tourism. Additionally they gained US favor, breaking diplomatic isolation. They’ve believed that engagement may yield higher outcomes than a boycott or prioritizing different issues over it. Israel’s assaults on unarmed Palestinians in Gaza threaten that sensible view.
It’s essential to do not forget that Sunni Islam and Sunni-majority states are not monolithic. Many Sunni populations stay deeply against normalization. International locations like Qatar keep relations with Hamas however not Israel. Turkey has diplomatic relations however stays extremely important. Jordan and Egypt have peace treaties, however expertise vital public opposition and chilly relations.
Then there may be the chance of state versus non-state actors. Established Sunni states usually prioritize state sovereignty, stability, and financial pursuits. Non-state Sunni actors like Hamas or the Muslim Brotherhood regularly keep hardline stances nearer to Iran’s place (Hamas is a part of the Resistance Axis).
Each Shia and Sunni Muslims revere Jerusalem (Al-Quds) because the third-holiest web site in Islam. The Palestinian trigger resonates deeply on non secular grounds throughout the Muslim world. The distinction lies in strategic emphasis. For Iran and its allies, opposing Israel is the central rallying cry and geopolitical technique. For some Sunni states, whereas the non secular significance stays, it competes with different urgent safety and financial priorities of their overseas coverage calculus. Iran weaponizes this perceived prioritization to criticize Sunni leaders.
Consequently, Shia opposition (Iran-led Axis) is primarily pushed by revolutionary ideology, geopolitical technique (countering the US/Israel/Saudi axis), regional ambitions, and using the Palestinian trigger as a device for legitimacy and proxy warfare. It’s a core a part of their identification and overseas coverage. That is why I personally am not optimistic, and I worry that Israel might stupidly assume assassinating the Supreme Chief will finish Iran, and it’ll return to the times of the pre-1979 Revolution. They put in danger your complete pragmatic nationwide pursuits of the Sunni States that may see inner strife in response to such an motion on prime of the exhausting remedy of Palestinian civilians in Gaza. This may end up in shifting regional dynamics that I’m deeply involved about. There isn’t a non secular Sunni theological shift on the significance of Jerusalem or Palestinian rights, and it faces vital public opposition inside these international locations.
The divergence is much less a few elementary Shia vs. Sunni theological distinction on Palestine/Israel, and extra about differing geopolitical methods, nationwide pursuits, and ideological priorities between the Iranian-led “Resistance Axis” and sure Sunni-led Arab states in search of new alliances and safety preparations in a altering Center East. Iran makes use of maximalist opposition to Israel as its defining technique, whereas some Sunni states have determined engagement serves their pursuits higher, given the perceived higher risk from Iran.
I’m not positive that there are individuals who perceive this within the management of Israel or the US. The large mistake right here is assuming that this strike will trigger the Shia to throw down their arms and undertake the Sunni pragmatic place. I don’t see that kind of non secular upheaval.
