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Shopper confidence within the UK rose for the second consecutive month in June, supported by a extra optimistic financial outlook, in keeping with a intently watched survey that raises hopes of stronger family spending.
The GfK shopper confidence index — a measure of how individuals view their private funds and broader financial prospects — rose two factors to minus 18 in June, the analysis group stated on Friday.
It adopted a three-point enchancment in Could and took the rating to ranges final seen on the finish of 2024, earlier than US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs on most American imports. Nevertheless, it remained effectively under the 2015-19 common of minus 5.6.
Neil Bellamy, shopper insights director at GfK, stated the rise in confidence was “pushed by enhancements in how shoppers see the final economic system”.
However, he warned, sentiment remained “fragile”, citing rising oil costs linked to battle within the Center East and continued tensions over tariffs. “Now could be definitely not the time to hope for the proverbial ‘gentle on the finish of the tunnel’,” he stated.
Policymakers monitor shopper confidence as an indicator of future spending, which impacts financial development.
Shopper spending has remained weak over the previous yr regardless of wages rising quicker than inflation. Family consumption contributed solely 0.1 proportion level to the 0.7 per cent total financial development within the first three months of the yr.
With interviews performed within the first half of June, the GfK index confirmed that expectations for the final financial outlook over the following 12 months rose 5 factors to minus 28. Nevertheless, the index monitoring respondents’ views of their future private funds remained unchanged at 2.
Improved financial knowledge for the primary quarter and new UK-US commerce agreements, which scale back the danger posed by Trump’s import tariffs, have led economists to boost their development forecasts.
Analysts count on UK financial development of 1 per cent in 2025, up from 0.7 per cent they forecast in April, in keeping with knowledge by Consensus Economics, an organization that averages main forecasters.
A separate survey by the British Retail Consortium this week additionally indicated that total sentiment is bettering.
The findings confirmed that the proportion of individuals anticipating the economic system to enhance over the following three months rose to 34 per cent in June, from 28 per cent in Could and 24 per cent in April. Spending intentions additionally elevated.
Helen Dickinson, chief govt of the British Retail Consortium, stated youthful generations had registered “the largest enchancment” in each their financial outlook and private finance expectations. This will partly mirror an increase within the minimal wage in April, she famous.
