Information and social media feeds inundate us with dramatic scenes of immigration policing. Viral movies of immigrant moms picked up on sidewalks close to their properties, news accounts of ICE agents showing up in Los Angeles schools and social media posts of U.S. residents detained by authorities brokers, all create a daunting spectacle. President Trump fuels the worry by trolling immigrant communities with sinister Valentine cards, dangling self-deportation incentives and implementing a chaotic enforcement technique that ignores makes an attempt at judicial oversight. Amid all this, many look to state and native leaders for calm, reassurance and assist.
In California, there stays a easy and constant response. Regardless of who, when, the place or the way you ask, a commanding majority of registered voters within the Golden State assist a path to citizenship for these within the state with out correct paperwork. In different phrases, throughout the partisan aisle, and throughout every kind of various teams and locations, most voters see a path to citizenship as a much-needed coverage repair, even now.
In August of 2024, just a few months earlier than the presidential election, the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Research Ballot asked more than 4,000 voters throughout the state whether or not they would assist or oppose a “path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who come ahead, are updated on their taxes, and move a background test.”
At the moment, the Harris and Trump campaigns had been in full swing. Harris’ group had already held just a few information conferences on the border, insinuating that elevated border safety could be prime of thoughts in her administration. In the meantime, Trump continued his common discourse about immigrants, as soon as infamously contending that immigrants had been “poisoning the blood of our country.” It was troublesome to see who, if anybody, felt sympathy towards group members who’d entered the nation with out authorization or overstayed a visa, although lots of them had raised new generations of Americans and contributed to public coffers and native job markets.
However even again in August, 80% of California registered voters who answered the ballot supported a path to citizenship. This included near 60% of polled Republicans, 75% of independents and even 56% of those that meant to vote for Trump. It additionally included 75% of those that earned a highschool diploma or much less, 80% of those that earned a university diploma or extra, 80% of ladies, 78% of males, 75% of house owners and 84% of these underneath 40. Among the many strongest supporters had been Democrats, with 91% assist, in addition to middle- and high-income earners, and people who lived within the Bay Space. Throughout most classes, a commanding majority of California voters expressed assist for a pathway to citizenship.
However that was then, earlier than the onslaught. Earlier than the viral movies, the renditions to El Salvador, the supply of money to self-deport. One may argue that in these before-times, maybe voters had been someway extra sympathetic to immigrants as a result of they had been distracted by different points, like the value of eggs and groceries or broader inflation points. And maybe some may not have believed that Trump would really observe by on his assaults on immigrant communities.
So in early Might the Berkeley IGS Ballot requested survey respondents once more about their assist for a path to citizenship. This time we polled more than 6,000 registered California voters and we inserted a small survey experiment. We had been inquisitive about whether or not respondents’ assist in August had been so sturdy as a result of the query they had been requested included language a couple of “background test,” an thought that may have primed them to consider “good” and “unhealthy” immigrants and should have inadvertently linked unauthorized standing to crime. So for half of all respondents in Might, we requested the identical query once more, however for the second half of respondents, we omitted this language, merely asking if they might assist or oppose a “path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who’re working or going to highschool and are updated on their taxes.”
Our survey discovered no statistically important variations between the 2 teams. The overwhelming majority of California voters suppose a path to citizenship is just the fitting factor to do, background test or not.
Furthermore, we discovered nearly no variations from August to Might. Eighty p.c of registered voters this month, together with near 60% of Republicans, continued to assist a path to citizenship. Someplace between 70% and 85% of each demographic, together with respondents underneath 40, these over 65, these of various racial teams, these in unions, those who hire their properties, those who personal their properties, males, ladies, these within the Central Valley, Los Angeles County, the Inland Empire and even these on the far North Coast all expressed assist for a path to citizenship. The consistency is resounding.
In case you’re making an attempt to make sense of the bombast and the whirlwind of govt and regulation enforcement actions directed at immigrants, bear in mind the one factor that unites a commanding majority of California voters, virtually with out regard to who we’re and the place we dwell, an understanding that good coverage is sensible coverage: Undocumented group members deserve aid.
State and native leaders don’t design federal immigration coverage, however they need to bear in mind this ballot knowledge as they make choices about how you can assist us all. If it had been put to a vote, an amazing majority of Californians would assist immigration reform, not mass deportation.
G. Cristina Mora and Nicholas Vargas are professors at UC Berkeley affiliated with the Institute of Governmental Research, the place Mora serves as co-director.
