Nishant Sharma migrated to Glasgow from Punjab in India nearly 20 years in the past, beginning as a dishwasher earlier than founding his personal spirits firm, Rutland Sq., named after the placement of India’s consulate in Edinburgh.
This week’s announcement of UK trade deal with India has cleared the trail for main export enlargement again to his ancestral house within the tea plantations of Assam, the place his great-grandfather discovered to distil spirits and mix whiskies with a Scottish colonial officer.
For 3 years, Sharma has been infusing gin with Assam tea to construct a cross-border narrative into the spirits he’s now promoting to Indian customers by way of duty-free retail channels.
India’s hitherto excessive tariffs have acted as a barrier to craft operations reminiscent of Rutland Sq., which now hopes to take advantage of increasing demand for status Scotch whisky and gin amongst India’s rising center lessons.
“This new commerce deal provides us a gateway into India,” stated Sharma, who’s concentrating on £2mn in gross sales by the tip of this yr, 60 per cent of which come from abroad. “It’ll generate income for the nation and large employment.” he stated.
The trade deal halves tariffs on Scotch imported to India from 150 per cent to 75 per cent, with a discount to 40 per cent after 10 years. Nonetheless, the 2 sides didn’t embody Indian state tariffs within the announcement, which might quantity to an extra 150 per cent levy on prime of federal expenses.
The loosening of commerce limitations nonetheless has the potential to spice up exports to India by £1bn over the subsequent 5 years, based on the Scotch Whisky Affiliation, a commerce physique.
India is the world’s largest marketplace for Scotch exports in quantity, with 192mn bottles exported in 2024, or 13.7 per cent of all exports. But it’s only the fifth largest in worth, at £248mn — 1 / 4 of the worth of exports to the US.
The deal comes at an opportune time for an trade dealing with a cyclical downturn as customers have traded right down to cheaper manufacturers whereas enter prices have soared, leaving stacked warehouses and cash-strapped distillers looking for to restrict manufacturing.
The world’s largest Scotch producer, Diageo, welcomed the deal announcement. India made up 6 per cent of the FTSE 100 group’s internet gross sales in 2024, or an annual $1.3bn, based on analysts at Bernstein.
“Right this moment’s settlement is a large achievement,” stated Diageo’s chief government Debra Crew, including that India was “the world’s largest and most enjoyable whisky market”.
“It is going to be transformational for Scotch and Scotland, whereas powering jobs and funding in each India and the UK,” she stated.
Diageo’s higher-end manufacturers reminiscent of Johnnie Walker, that are bottled in Scotland, make up about 24 per cent of the group’s gross sales in India. Scotch imported in bulk and bottled in India makes up an extra 6 per cent, based on Bernstein. The rest of its gross sales include native whisky manufacturers, that are unaffected by the tariffs.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimated that the tariff discount would increase earnings per share for Diageo and Pernod Ricard by low single digits. “That is welcome information contemplating the present weak spot in spirits globally, however we stay cautious on the sector resulting from lacklustre demand within the USA,” they stated.
A partial UK-US trade deal, additionally introduced this week, has stored 10 per cent tariffs on most UK items coming into the US, with solely automobile and metal exports to America profitable cuts.
“The welcome progress for different sectors is a transparent signal that the intensive efforts by the UK authorities is bearing fruit. We proceed to assist this measured and pragmatic strategy within the weeks forward in order that Scotch whisky can return to the zero-for-zero tariff settlement with our mates and companions within the US whiskey trade as quickly as doable,” the Scotch Whisky Affiliation stated.
So far as the UK’s cope with India goes, Jason Holway, senior marketing consultant at knowledge supplier IWSR, estimates that the easing of tariffs will result in a ten per cent value drop for Indian customers of UK whisky.
“This isn’t to be sniffed at however isn’t a game-changer both. It is very important stress that any financial savings is not going to be common and is probably not handed on to the patron, a minimum of not within the short-term,” he stated.
Holway added that model house owners have been already invoicing at decrease costs to compensate for the excessive duties. “India’s state governments will likely be reluctant to permit value reductions as it can minimize into their tax income,” he stated.
Drinks analysts at Jefferies stated the deal would assist soak up extra Scotch inventories.
At present, solely the biggest gamers, reminiscent of Diageo and Pernod — with 49 and 30 per cent share of the Scotch market, respectively — have been capable of afford the excessive value of entry into India, stated Jefferies analyst Ed Mundy. With levies lowered, extra small and medium sized manufacturers will be capable of begin exporting.
“This may assist to soak up extra inventories available in the market and partly assuage issues of a whisky loch, which dangers placing downward stress on Scotch pricing,” Mundy stated.
Exporters to India, the world’s largest buyer for bulk Scotch, have been now extra more likely to push pricier bottled Scotch “which may ship long-term upsides, somewhat than give attention to low margin, short-term features”, stated IWSR’s Holway.
Huw Wright of Edinburgh’s Holyrood distillery had already been planning to launch its whisky manufacturers in India. “Now, we now have decrease touchdown prices, we will be aggressive and spend on model constructing inside the market,” he stated.
The Isle of Raasay distillery, off Skye, already has an importing arrange in India and can “enter the market in a extra significant method”, stated William Dobbie, managing director. Inside 5 years, India may break into the corporate’s prime 5 markets by quantity — at the moment the UK, France, US, China and Germany.
Smaller distilleries must construct distribution channels and broaden advertising spend, in addition to take into consideration safety of mental property rights, stated Brian Moore of regulation agency Dentons.
“There are many issues to do, however these are champagne issues,” he stated. “This is a chance the trade has been asking for, for a very long time.”
Information visualisation by Janina Conboye in London
