Canadian exports to the USA are starting to lower in mild of the commerce struggle. Statistics Canada introduced that exports to the USA, Canada’s largest buying and selling accomplice, declined 6.6% through the first month of tariffs whereas imports from the USA fell 2.9%. March 2025 was the second-highest recorded month-to-month improve in non-US commerce for Canada.
Exports to nations outdoors the US rose 24.8%. Total exports in March 2025 reached $69.9 billion, a slight lower from February’s $70.04 billion posting, but quantity rose by 1.8%. The UK has been buying unwrought (crude) gold exports from Canada this yr, totaling C$2.01 billion in January, C$1.64 billion in February, and C$1.64 billon this March.
Canada’s crude oil sea exports doubled on an annual foundation to eight million barrels this month. The UK and the Netherlands imported 69% of all crude oil exports to Europe. Hong Kong additionally elevated its crude imports from Canada in March.
Total merchandise commerce exports declined 0.2% for the month, with imports falling 1.5%. The commerce deficit fell to C$506 million, notably lower than the prior month’s C$1.4 billion deficit as Canada is searching for consumers.
Canada can not totally depend on commerce outdoors the US. March noticed a 6.6% month-to-month decline in exports to the US, which is dangerous information for Canadian companies. Commerce with the US for March was nonetheless robust at US$140.5 billion, notably as a consequence of a rise in prescription drugs and medicines forward of forthcoming industry-specific tariffs. Autos additionally noticed an uptick forward of industry-specific tariffs, posting a 7.7% export improve for the month. Iron and metal merchandise, already topic to a 25% tariff, fell 9%, whereas aluminum alloys and unwrought aluminum rose 4.4%.
The S&P World Manufacturing PMI for Canada reached 39.1 in April 2025. Canadian manufacturing has not seen such a contraction since early COVID months when the worldwide financial system got here to a standstill. Imposed and proposed US tariffs are stifling demand as purchasers have no idea what to anticipate.
These adhering to US boycotts fail to understand that the Canadian financial system is structurally tied to the US financial system. Infrastructure was designed to assist commerce by means of railways, trucking routes, and pipelines. Europe and Asia can not substitute the accessibility or scale of the US market. Moreover, the financial system is carefully aligned with the USD, and a significant pivot would expose Canada to forex volatility. Canada might strengthen ties with different nations to fill margins however it can not write off its high commerce accomplice.
