Unlock the Editor’s Digest totally free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite tales on this weekly publication.
The author is former head of Citigroup’s rising markets investments and creator of ‘The Gathering Storm’
India’s missile strikes in opposition to Pakistan this week have considerably escalated tensions with its nuclear-armed neighbour, marking the deepest incursion into Pakistan’s undisputed territory for the reason that Indo-Pakistani battle of 1971. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described the assault as “an act of battle,” as Islamabad vowed to retaliate.
The battle was triggered by an April terror assault in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians and drew worldwide concern. Donald Trump has described the state of affairs as “a disgrace” and expressed hope for a swift decision, remarking that “they’ve been combating for a very long time, for a lot of, many a long time.”
For Pakistan, the financial fallout from one other extended battle could be considerably extra extreme than for India, making any continued escalation particularly perilous. Moody’s Traders Service warned concerning the risks on Might 5. “Tensions with India would probably weigh on Pakistan’s development and hamper fiscal consolidation, setting again macroeconomic stability,” the company acknowledged. Pakistan’s economic system, exhibiting tentative restoration beneath a $7bn IMF programme, may collapse.
Traditionally, such conflicts have destabilised Pakistan. The battle in Afghanistan had a devastating impression, contributing to the rise of sectarian violence, the proliferation of weapons and medicines, and the rise of extremist teams that problem the state’s authority.
At this time, its economic system stays extremely susceptible. As of December 2024, Pakistan’s exterior debt had surpassed $131bn, whereas its foreign-exchange reserves of round $10bn lined barely three months of imports. Any additional army escalation may jeopardise entry to international capital markets and bilateral financing, compounding compensation challenges and straining reserves. The IMF programme itself may very well be thrown off target by heightened geopolitical danger.
In 2021, Pakistan’s former Military Chief Basic Qamar Javed Bajwa warned journalists that the nation lacked ample diesel to energy its tanks and even the funds to function them — a vulnerability that persists.
India, in distinction, is in a markedly stronger place. Bilateral commerce between the 2 stays negligible, accounting for lower than 0.5 per cent of India’s whole exports in 2024. Even in a protracted stand-off, India’s financial exercise would face minimal disruption.
There could also be oblique prices for New Delhi — a pointy rise in defence spending may gradual its fiscal consolidation, diverting sources from improvement priorities. Elevated army expenditures may additionally impede infrastructure enlargement and cut back allocations for social programmes. India additionally faces safety pressures on a number of fronts, notably alongside contested borders with China. A two-front safety posture imposes prices that, whereas manageable, warrant strategic warning in relation to what occurs subsequent.
But India’s state of affairs pales compared to the existential financial dangers confronting Pakistan. For Islamabad, army engagement would possibly supply a brief political rallying level amid home unrest, however the financial harm could be lasting. Already leaning on Chinese language help — Beijing lately rolled over $2bn in debt — Pakistan dangers deeper dependence on China, complicating its relations with western allies, notably the US.
Pakistan’s actual economic system, notably agriculture, would additionally undergo. India’s suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty sends a destabilising sign. Agriculture stays the spine of Pakistan’s economic system, using almost 40 per cent of its labour pressure. Mixed with ongoing political instability and the lingering results of the 2022 floods, the nation is ill-prepared for one more main shock. A single disaster may set off financial collapse and mass struggling. For Islamabad, avoiding vital escalation may very well be a query of survival.
Swift worldwide motion is now important to defuse rising tensions between India and Pakistan — failure to take action is not going to solely unleash broader geopolitical instability but in addition imperil the livelihoods of tens of millions in one of many world’s poorest areas (the 2 nations collectively embody a sizeable proportion of the worldwide inhabitants subsisting on lower than $3.65 per day.)
Even when a full-scale battle seems unlikely, the potential for restricted hostilities — frequent within the fraught historical past of this rivalry — stays excessive. And shortlived escalations can nonetheless impose outsize financial and human prices, notably on a rustic as susceptible as Pakistan.
