For years, Beijing has had excessive hopes that Comac’s C919, China’s first domestically made airliner, may problem the plane market dominance of Boeing and Airbus, exhibiting China’s technological self-reliance and the advances made by its state-run aircraft maker.
However because the US-China commerce conflict escalates, analysts are warning that the C919’s heavy reliance on US suppliers for vital elements may threaten plans to extend manufacturing and even hit the upkeep of passenger jets already in operation.
With China’s three huge state-owned airways already flying 17 C919s and Comac anticipating to construct at the least 30 extra of the single-aisle aircraft this yr, the tensions between Washington and Beijing are highlighting how Chinese language corporations will be closely depending on US corporations of their provide chains.
The C919, which made its maiden business flight in China in 2023, has 48 main suppliers from the US, 26 from Europe and 14 from China, in response to Financial institution of America analyst Ron Epstein.
For many western plane elements for the jet, there are not any home alternate options available, analysts say, which means the US “can [halt] Comac in its tracks anytime it needs”, stated Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory.
One of the vital essential components of the C919, its LEAP-1C engine, is constructed by CFM Worldwide, a three way partnership between the US group GE Aerospace and French producer Safran. Whereas China has been growing a home various, the CJ-1000A, it was nonetheless being examined and was “not prepared but”, stated Dan Taylor, head of consulting at aviation consultancy IBA.
Whereas CFM Worldwide continued to construct the engines, together with in France, added Taylor, the core module was produced in Ohio. “If entry to that was interrupted, it may turn out to be a significant headache for Comac,” he stated.
Different US suppliers for the C919 embody Honeywell, Collins Aerospace, Crane Aerospace & Electronics and Parker Aerospace for varied vital elements and aviation techniques. Honeywell didn’t reply to a request for remark, whereas Collins declined to remark particularly on its relationship with Comac.
“Not like many different industries, the business aerospace business didn’t turn out to be depending on low-cost manufacturing in China,” BofA’s Epstein wrote in a be aware. “Most Chinese language suppliers on the C919 are . . . not excessive value-add subsystems corresponding to engines, controls, avionics or actuation.”
Sash Tusa, a UK-based aerospace and defence analyst, stated that whereas the US “has not [yet] stated they won’t provide [components for the C919] — that could be the following stage”. Ongoing after-market providers, together with restore and upkeep assist of C919 jets already in operation, may also need to depend on US suppliers, aviation analysts say.
For now, it was “doubtless that Comac has sufficient stock to cowl near-term deliveries”, IBA stated. China has additionally already granted some tariff exemptions on US imports, together with a number of aviation-related merchandise. Safran stated final week that China granted tariff exemptions for imports of sure aerospace components.
But when the US in some unspecified time in the future determined to limit exports of vital elements to China and “if China stops shopping for plane elements from the US, the C919 programme is halted or lifeless”, Epstein stated.
Comac has been finding out the results of the tariff will increase and gross sales have “not been impacted”, in response to one individual near the corporate. The plane producer didn’t reply to a request for remark.
China’s state-run airways could be worst affected if US-China tensions derailed Comac’s manufacturing capabilities. By 2031, Air China, China Japanese and China Southern Airways have been every anticipated to function fleets of at the least 100 C919 plane, in response to Mayur Patel, head of Asia for OAG Aviation.
However Comac solely delivered 13 C919s final yr to Chinese language airways, and aviation consultancy Cirium Ascend stated just one C919 was delivered within the first three months of this yr.
Analysts say Comac’s gradual manufacturing price means its plane can’t be Boeing or Airbus replacements for the foreseeable future. Beijing appeared to recognise this actuality final week, with the commerce ministry saying China was prepared to assist regular co-operation with US corporations, solely days after Chinese airlines rejected taking supply of any new jets from Boeing.
The tariffs and uncertainties round western provides of vital elements may additionally immediate Comac to rethink its priorities to ship and fly the C919 past China.
The airliner nonetheless lacks worldwide certification, together with from the US’s Federal Aviation Administration and from Europe’s aviation regulator, which limits Cormac’s capability to fly exterior China and its efforts to spice up world gross sales. The European Union Aviation Security Company not too long ago stated it might take three to 6 years for the C919 to realize approval.
However in response to aerospace analyst Tusa, entry to abroad markets might not be a major situation for the C919. “So long as it provides a big proportion of the Chinese language home market, that’s good demand in and of itself,” he stated.
Further reporting by Claire Bushey in Chicago
