Cardinals from all over the world will meet this week to formally start choosing the following pope in a secret poll after the late Pope Francis‘s funeral on April 26. The vote itself will happen behind the sealed doorways of the Sistine Chapel someday after Might 7.
Deciding on the following chief of the Catholic Church is a momentous and extremely anticipated job. The church counts some 1.4 billion baptised Roman Catholics all over the world as members.
Elections within the Vatican usually are not resistant to lobbying and campaigning. First, the cardinals should maintain a sequence of congregazioni – particular conferences at which they are going to focus on what kind of chief they’re searching for. Whereas solely 135 cardinals will have the ability to vote, as they’re beneath the age of 80, as per the voting guidelines, all cardinals can attend these conferences regardless of age.
Roberto Regoli, a professor of Catholic Church historical past at Rome’s Pontifical Gregorian College, mentioned that in contrast to in a standard election, not one of the high contenders within the Vatican is brazenly canvassing to be elected. Most individuals would say they don’t want the submit if requested, he mentioned.
“It’s a whole lot of work,” Regoli advised Al Jazeera. “You haven’t any time to do something for your self.”
Outcomes can typically be stunning, and specialists are cautious of speculating upfront. In 2013, for instance, Pope Francis was not even counted as a favorite within the media. It was solely after a speech he gave at one of many congregazioni that he was observed.
Right here’s what we find out about a number of the potential candidates.
What’s the course of and timeline for choosing the following pope?
The School of Cardinals will in the end elect considered one of their quantity to be the following pope. There are presently 252 cardinals, 135 of whom are cardinal electors as they’re beneath the age of 80 – the deadline for papal elections.
After just a few days of conferences, the 135 voting cardinals will likely be sequestered within the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel on Might 7 in what is called a “conclave”. They are going to don’t have any entry to telephones, the web, or the surface world. No cardinal can depart till a reputation is pronounced, barring distinctive circumstances.
Cardinals will vote in a single or a number of secret ballots to elect the brand new pope. The winner wants a two-thirds majority.
Observers standing exterior the Vatican will know a pope has been chosen by the color of the smoke rising from the chimney of the chapel: black means no consensus, white means a brand new pope has been declared.
Conclaves often final for a number of days or, in some circumstances, weeks. Pope Francis was elected in two days.
Who’re the voting cardinals?
Francis’s reforms modified the make-up of the School of Cardinals. He appointed 80 p.c of the present cardinals, choosing them from all over the world – with a selected emphasis on the International South – and selecting folks with totally different ideological leanings.
For the primary time, nations like Mongolia, Iran and East Timor will likely be represented. Among the many cardinals are people who find themselves conservative on matters reminiscent of same-sex marriage and divorce, in addition to others who’re much less orthodox. The larger mixture of views – and the a lot bigger illustration of the International South – makes this vote a very unpredictable one, specialists say.
What are the cardinals searching for in a brand new pope?
Of their conferences earlier than the conclave, the cardinals will likely be making an attempt to resolve if they need a liberal-minded chief just like the late Pope Francis, a extra traditionalist pontiff like his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, or somebody with average tendencies.
Cardinals will even doubtless be searching for somebody expert in worldwide diplomacy, Regoli mentioned, with the world going through a number of conflicts and altering geopolitical dynamics. The church would additionally favor somebody not too younger, to make sure a comparatively brief tenure.
Ideology and geography will even play a job, historian Miles Pattenden, who’s related to the College of Oxford, advised Al Jazeera.
“Francis was identified to be spontaneous, and the church may be trying to elect somebody extra cautious in his reactions,” he mentioned. And, with the Catholic inhabitants rising in Asia and Africa, the cardinals might need to ship the message that an Asian or African pope is extra consultant.
Private attraction, although, is the key ingredient. As a result of most of the cardinals have hardly ever met, it’s exhausting to know who would possibly get alongside properly with whom. The subsequent pope would be the cardinal who, with out showing to take action, can persuade the others that he can characterize the church globally and deal with the church’s challenges: adapting to secularisation, and coping properly with current intercourse and monetary scandals, in addition to declining membership within the West.
Most of all, electors do look like searching for a sober and unifying determine who can carry stability to the church’s central authorities after Francis’s extra revolutionary type of management.
Who’re the highest contenders?
Here’s a record of candidates, in no explicit order, who specialists consider are frontrunners.
Cardinal Luis “Chito” Antonio Tagle, 67
Some observers consider the longer term for the management of the church lies exterior the historically elected class of Italian cardinals.
Tagle, from the Philippines, would possibly swimsuit the cardinals who need that progress to be extra seen. The nation is essentially the most Catholic on the earth, with 80 p.c of the 100 million figuring out as Catholics. If elected, Tagle could be the primary Asian pope.
Ordained a cardinal in 2012 by Pope Benedict, Tagle presently leads the church’s evangelisation programmes from the Vatican. A former archbishop of Manila, Tagle is popularly known as the “Asian Francis”. His type of management is just like the late Pope Francis’s pastoral strategy, Pattenden mentioned.
Whereas he’s against abortion, he’s devoted to social justice causes reminiscent of migration and poverty, and has pushed for a much less harsh stance on homosexual folks, divorcees and single moms. Senior roles inside the Holy See since 2019 have additionally seen him acquire Vatican expertise.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70
Italian and current Vatican Secretary of State, Parolin’s background and place inside the church imply he has a powerful likelihood of being thought of for pope. He has held the quantity two place within the Vatican since 2013.
With diplomatic stints for the church in Nigeria, Mexico, Spain and Italy, he’s thought to be a talented, secure hand on the world stage. He has pushed to enhance China-Vatican relations which have been strained due to the Holy See’s recognition of Taiwan.
Parolin’s supporters say that whereas he agrees with a few of Francis’s beliefs (he helps embracing the divorced and opposes the US administration’s plans for Gaza), he’s additionally a pragmatist who understands the nuances of diplomacy and will take a extra average strategy than Francis. Critics, nonetheless, say he lacks pastoral expertise and would possibly put diplomacy above the church’s pursuits.
“Parolin or Tagle would possibly finest characterize some type of continuity of the Francis type if that’s what the church decides is the way in which to go,” Pattenden mentioned.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76
Of three distinguished African frontrunners, Turkson, who hails from Ghana, is seen because the extra average and, thus, extra suited to diplomacy. The cohort of African cardinals is, basically, thought to be fairly conservative, significantly with regards to the place of girls within the church and same-sex marriage.
Specialists beforehand marked Turkson as a favorite in 2013. Though he leans extra conservative than liberal, he’s against the criminalisation of homosexual relations in Ghana, the place a invoice imposing harsh penalties on homosexuality was handed.
There has by no means been an African pope, and such an election could be “ground-breaking”, Pattenden mentioned.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72
Described as cautious and risk-averse, the Hungarian priest is a revered lawyer and staunch conservative who’s prone to have backing from these in search of a change of strategy from Pope Francis’s type of management.
Erdo, because the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, is seen by critics as pleasant to the Hungarian right-wing and anti-migrant governing celebration, Fidesz, inflicting some observers to explain his candidature as one to be afraid of. Whereas he’s not straight against the rights of individuals emigrate, Erdo has raised questions on how integrating refugees would possibly endanger political stability in Hungary. Critics cite this stance as one near approving Fidesz’s criminalisation of migrants. Some additionally say Erdo has been unwilling to correctly examine allegations of sexual abuse within the Catholic Church.
In an opinion piece within the UK’s Guardian newspaper, Hungarian journalist Alex Faludy wrote that Erdo’s identify on the record ought to make observers “fearful”.
“Erdo’s potential ascent to the papal throne could be dangerous information for LGBTQ+ Catholics and those that have remarried after divorce,” Faludy wrote. “It ought to, nonetheless, additionally fear abuse survivors and anybody involved with the integrity of Christianity’s presence in public life.”
The priest was beforehand considered as a favorite in 2013, when he was 60 years previous, however didn’t acquire robust backing. On the time, observers mentioned he was seen as too younger.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
One other well-recognised diplomat, an Italian and Archbishop of Bologna, Zuppi led a peace mission to Ukraine in 2023 and helped mediate an finish to the Mozambique civil struggle in 1992.
He was appointed cardinal in 2019 by Francis, whose beliefs he broadly agrees with.
As a member of the Catholic humanitarian group, the Neighborhood of Sant’Egidio, Matteo could be anticipated to concentrate on growing outreach to deprived or crisis-hit communities.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
The archbishop of Kinshasa within the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Besungu represents a key demographic within the church: the DRC has greater than seven million Catholics, making it the largest Catholic nation in Africa.
Cardinal Besungu is staunchly traditionalist. Whereas he has spoken out towards human rights violations in his homeland, he’s unequivocally towards blessing same-sex relationships (which Pope Francis launched), even standing up and criticising Pope Francis about his rulings on the subject.
He’s one other favorite for the conservative camp.
Cardinal Michael Czerny, 78
Initially from Czechoslovakia however raised in Canada, the cardinal leads the social justice operations of the Vatican.
He was appointed by Pope Francis and is, like him, a Jesuit – an arm of the church identified for its concentrate on training, missionary work and charitable actions. The 2 males have been thought of to be shut.
Czerny has labored in Africa and Latin America and based the African Jesuit Aids Community.
Specialists say it’s potential Czerny will attraction to progressives within the church, however there are doubts about whether or not the School would instantly vote for an additional Jesuit pope.
“Usually, we don’t have two consecutive popes of the identical order,” Regoli mentioned.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60
From Italy, Pizzaballa is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem the place he has lived since being ordained as a priest at 25 years previous.
Pope Francis appointed him as cardinal in 2023.
He has an excellent understanding of the complexities of the Palestine-Israel battle, Israel’s ongoing struggle on the Gaza Strip and Center Japanese relations.
Pizzaballa has spoken out towards the Gaza struggle, rebuking either side. Within the early days of the struggle, he provided to change himself for baby captives taken throughout Hamas’s assault on Israel on October 7, 2023.
Pattenden mentioned one important issue the church will take a look at is age. Pizzaballa, at 60, is way youthful than Pope Francis was when he was elected (76). Meaning, even when a powerful contender, Pizzaballa’s age may not attraction to some voters.
Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79
The Guinean cardinal is maybe essentially the most conventional and orthodox of all of the frontrunners and is without doubt one of the most recognised African church leaders.
He was appointed archbishop of Conakry on the age of 34 and was, on the time, the youngest bishop on the earth. His outspoken nature positioned him on an assassination hit record by the previous Guinean dictator, Ahmed Sekou Toure. The record was found after Toure’s loss of life.
In 2001, Pope John Paul II promoted Sarah to move of evangelisation, opening his sojourn into the Vatican correct.
Pope Benedict appointed him as a cardinal in 2010 and he retired from energetic workplace in 2021 as prefect for Divine Worship and Self-discipline of the Sacraments.
He reportedly had turbulent relations with Pope Francis, nonetheless. Sarah’s leanings, age and Vatican expertise put him at a candy spot for these within the school trying to roll again Francis-era reforms on abortion, same-sex relations and the church’s closeness with different religions.
Cardinal Angelo Scola, 83
An previous Vatican saying goes thus: “Popes who enter a conclave typically emerge as cardinals.” That adage applies to Scola. Again in 2013, the Italian priest was the touted media favorite, going into the conclave because the one most individuals believed could be pope. When the white smoke went up, a bunch of Italian bishops even issued statements that Scola had been elected. However he ultimately emerged as a cardinal as a result of Pope Francis had been elected.
A former archbishop of Milan, Scola will be unable to vote as a result of he’s above the 80-year voting restrict, however his identify has once more surfaced as a reputable candidate.
His ideologies extra carefully mannequin the conservationist strategy of Pope Benedict XVI who appointed him cardinal.
Whereas mute on same-sex unions thus far, Scola is strongly against feminine deacons and different left-leaning gender debates.
He has pastoral expertise however can also be a widely known professor and scholar with a number of books beneath his belt. He has centered on themes of interfaith and intercultural dialogue, in addition to on evangelisation and serving to new Catholic converts.
His critics see him as an mental who may be a tad faraway from the experiences of the widespread Catholic, however his traditionalism and age may make him an excellent possibility for conservatives.
