It was a carefully held, pressing assembly.
Iran was pondering a response to President Trump’s letter looking for nuclear negotiations. So the nation’s president, in addition to the heads of the judiciary and Parliament huddled with Iran’s supreme chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, final month, in accordance with two senior Iranian officers conversant in the assembly.
Mr. Khamenei had publicly and repeatedly banned participating with Washington, calling it unwise and idiotic. The senior officers, in an uncommon coordinated effort, urged him to alter course, mentioned the 2 officers, who requested to not be named to debate delicate points.
The message to Mr. Khamenei was blunt: Enable Tehran to barter with Washington, even straight if obligatory, as a result of in any other case the Islamic Republic’s rule might be toppled.
The nation was already coping with an financial system in shambles, a foreign money plunging towards the greenback and shortages of fuel, electrical energy and water. The specter of battle with the US and Israel was extraordinarily critical, the officers warned. If Iran refused talks or if the negotiations failed, the officers informed Mr. Khamenei, navy strikes on Iran’s two essential nuclear websites, Natanz and Fordow, can be inevitable.
Iran would then be pressured to retaliate, risking a wider battle, a situation that would additional injury the financial system and spark home unrest, together with protests and strikes, the officers mentioned. Preventing on two fronts posed an existential menace to the regime, they added.
On the finish of the hourslong assembly, Mr. Khamenei relented. He granted his permission for talks, first oblique, by way of an middleman, after which, if issues proceeded effectively, for direct talks between U.S. and Iranian negotiators, the 2 officers mentioned.
On March 28, Iran sent a formal reply to Mr. Trump’s letter signaling its readiness for negotiations.
On Saturday, Iran and the US will hold the first round of talks in Oman. If this progresses to face-to-face conferences, it will be an indication of a serious concession by Iran, which has insisted it doesn’t wish to meet People straight. Iran nonetheless maintains the negotiations might be oblique — which means all sides will sit in separate rooms and Omani diplomats will carry messages forwards and backwards — whereas the US has mentioned the 2 sides plan to fulfill straight. For either side the stakes are enormous.
“Mr. Khamenei’s turnaround demonstrates his long-held core precept that ‘preserving the regime is probably the most obligatory of the requirements,’” mentioned Hossein Mousavian, a former diplomat who served on Iran’s nuclear negotiating workforce on a 2015 deal and is now a visiting fellow at Princeton College.
Mr. Trump, talking within the Oval Workplace on Wednesday, as soon as once more affirmed that he would take navy motion towards Iran “if obligatory, completely,” if it fails to barter.
“I’m not asking for a lot, they will’t have a nuclear weapon,” he mentioned, including, “I need them to thrive. I need Iran to be nice.”
The talks come towards the backdrop of a quickly altering world order, from regional modifications, to international tariffs and shifting alliances. The Iranian-backed militias within the area, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been crippled by Israel, and Iran lost a key ally in Syria after President Bashar al-Assad’s fall in December.
Iran’s highly effective allies, Russia and China, have additionally inspired Iran to resolve its nuclear standoff with the US by way of negotiations. The three international locations have held two conferences in Beijing and Moscow lately to debate Iran’s nuclear program.
Since Mr. Trump took workplace in January, Iranian newspapers and pundits have expressed concern about whether or not the nation’s fastidiously cultivated alliance with Russia and China was in danger.
The Trump administration has engaged straight with Russia’s authorities on the Ukraine battle and Iran. Mr. Trump has additionally pressured China to cease shopping for Iran’s sanctioned oil and penalized Chinese language refineries that buy oil from Iran.
Homayoun Falakshahi, head of the crude oil workforce at Kpler, an organization that tracks oil shipments, mentioned that since January, Iran exported about 1.6 million barrels a day of crude oil, largely to China. His agency initiatives a drop of almost half one million barrels a day if the US expands its sanctions on China. That might have an enormous impact on Iran’s financial system.
Financial considerations had been a part of the dialogue as senior officers urged Mr. Khamenei to permit negotiations.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps and present conservative head of Parliament, informed Mr. Khamenei {that a} battle mixed with a home financial implosion might rapidly get uncontrolled, in accordance with the 2 senior officers who spoke to the Instances concerning the assembly.
President Masoud Pezeshkian informed Mr. Khamenei that managing the nation by way of its present crises was not tenable, the officers mentioned. The federal government has introduced new energy cuts for Tehran this month, and for factories, threatening manufacturing traces. Within the central metropolis of Yazd, extreme water shortages pressured the closure of faculties and authorities places of work for 2 days this week.
On Saturday, Iran might be represented by Overseas Minister Abbas Araghchi and the US by the particular envoy for the Center East, Steve Witkoff.
Whereas the targets of the preliminary assembly are modest — to agree on a framework for negotiations and a timeline — if it goes effectively, a gathering between Mr. Araghchi and Mr. Witkoff can be potential as quickly as Saturday, the Iranian officers mentioned.
The clock is ticking on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is now far nearer to with the ability to produce a weapon than it was in 2018, when Mr. Trump withdrew from a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.
After Mr. Trump exited that deal and imposed sanctions, Iran additionally moved to desert a few of its obligations beneath the deal, which curbed its uranium enrichment ranges at 3.5 % and superior to 60 %.
Iran has mentioned its nuclear program is for peaceable functions, although U.S. intelligence concluded earlier this 12 months that Iran was exploring a faster, if cruder, route to a weapon if it selected to pursue one. The United Nations atomic company, which screens the nuclear websites, has mentioned it has not discovered proof of weaponization.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly mentioned that the sooner deal was inadequate and that he wants a broader agreement.
For his half, Mr. Khamenei has set some situations and parameters for talks, in accordance with three Iranian officers. He has given the greenlight to debate the nuclear program — together with strict monitoring mechanisms and vital discount of the enrichment of uranium. However he mentioned that Iran’s missiles are a part of the nation’s self-defense and are off limits, the officers mentioned.
Mr. Mousavian, the previous nuclear negotiator, mentioned Iran would by no means conform to calls for by Washington and Israel to utterly dismantle its nuclear program, including that such a requirement can be a “deal breaker.”
Iran can be open to discussing its regional insurance policies and help for militant teams, the officers mentioned, and would point out a willingness to make use of its affect to defuse regional tensions, together with with the Houthis in Yemen.
Mr. Khamenei appointed a number of of his prime advisers and confidants — Kamal Kharazi on overseas coverage, Ali Larijani on technique and Mohammad Forouzandeh on navy issues — to handle negotiations with Washington in shut coordination with the overseas ministry, 4 Iranian officers mentioned.
In one other signal of a softening of Iran’s place, Mr. Pezeshkian mentioned on Wednesday in a public speech that Mr. Khamenei was open to permitting American companies and investments to enter Iran’s largely untapped market.
The information of Saturday’s talks dominated the entrance pages of Iranian newspapers this week, and even the financial system confirmed a small signal of a lift. The worth of Iran’s foreign money, the rial, rallied barely towards the greenback on the black market. And Iran’s inventory market opened with a surge for a lot of corporations.
Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the Disaster Group, an unbiased analysis group, mentioned that, with Mr. Trump, Iran has a novel alternative for a long-lasting cope with the US and the potential to resolve a diplomatic rift almost 5 many years lengthy. Mr. Trump’s affect over Israel and the Republican Get together, which has historically opposed a cope with Iran, would give any potential deal extra weight.
“Time is simply too quick, the stakes are too excessive, and the problems are too sophisticated for diplomacy to have an opportunity with out the 2 key protagonists speaking to one another,” mentioned Mr. Vaez.
Leily Nikounazar contributed reporting from Brussels.
