The Kremlin readout recommended that Mr Putin has not budged on any of his long-stated most calls for to finish the struggle in Ukraine: Not his territorial calls for for the management of 4 annexed areas and positively not the demilitarisation of Ukraine, together with its non-membership within the North Atlantic Treaty Group (NATO) and restricted dimension of its armed forces.
Importantly, Mr Trump seemingly lacked a contingency plan for this final result.
Rebuffing the American proposal was all the time going to be an enormous gamble for Mr Putin – one which dangers the US imposing additional sanctions on Russia and even boosting American navy help to Ukraine as a manner of exerting stress.
THE BALL IS IN DONALD TRUMP’S COURT
Per week after the US-Ukraine deal put the “ball in Russia’s court docket”, Mr Trump now finds it in his court docket. Will he put extra stress on Ukraine to accede to Russia’s calls for or will he resort to placing stress on Russia?
The previous is extra possible than the latter, given how Trump has performed his playing cards to this point. However there are limits as to how profitable this method will likely be.
In reality, Mr Trump may come to understand quickly that he has reached the tip of the highway with Ukraine and that stress on Russia would be the solely option to transfer ahead if he’s as critical about peace as he has insisted.
Stefan Wolff is Professor of Worldwide Safety on the College of Birmingham and Head of the Division of Political Science and Worldwide Research.
